Daniel Palencia
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Palencia sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.450 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 57th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (70th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (25th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
104 batters faced · data through 2026-09-12.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Daniel Palencia.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (29.9%)
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| Daniel Palencia | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .503 | .527 | 57th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 43rd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 70th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Daniel Palencia leans on his four-seam fastball (66% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 4.1 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 46 bases vs a replacement arm's 54 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
4.9 bases saved vs league average, across 374 pitches — 1.3 per 100.
His splitter and sinker aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Daniel Palencia's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His splitter and sinker aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.044 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.051
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.474 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.453 to 0.495, based on 52 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.593 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.457 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.593) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.430 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.409 to 0.452, based on 52 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.276 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.276) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.042). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 more bases than their contact off Daniel Palencia earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 71 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.50 · WHIP 1.42 · BABIP against 0.313 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MarinersAug 21, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs GiantsJun 7, 2026score only
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs BrewersSep 9, 2026
5 BF · 0 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs White SoxMay 17, 2026
5 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs AthleticsJun 3, 2026score only
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Daniel Palencia
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.