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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 5, 2026
Nationals
10
Final
Phillies
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Nationals 52% · tied 14% · Phillies 34%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
10
4
Est. bases
12.3
11.7
Total bases
17
8
Home runs
1
1
Barrels
2
3
Walks/HBP
10
7
Strikeouts
11
5
GIDP
1
2
Stolen bases
1
2
Left on base
12
7
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Nationals lead on deserved runs by 0.6.

Phillies deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2+4-0.6-6
Nationals deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Nationals +0.3 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Nationals +1Through inning 2: deserved Phillies +1.6 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.9 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 3: deserved Phillies +1.3 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 4: deserved Phillies +1.3 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 5: deserved Phillies +0.9 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.4 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 6: deserved Phillies +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 7: deserved Phillies +0.8 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.4 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Phillies +0.5 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 9: deserved Phillies +0.3 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Phillies +0.6 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 11: deserved Nationals +0.6 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning -1.2 deserved runs · actual Nationals +61234567891011

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualPhillies sideNationals side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Nationals
Phillies
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Nationals
Lucky
Unlucky
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Nationals
Phillies
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Nationalspitching
Jake Irvin5.3 IP · 20 BF · 3 K · 2 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Curveball did the damage prevention — 2.5 bases better than average on 17 pitches. The Sinker got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.9 expected bases.

Will Dion0.7 IP · 2 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases cost

Faced only 2 batters.

Curveball2 thrown (33% tonight, season 22%)
+0.2 bases cost
Yovanny Cruz0.3 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
1.2 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 0.8 expected bases.

Splitter1 thrown (4% tonight, season 11%)
+0.1 bases cost
Tom Cosgrove1.3 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

About an average night — −1.1 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Orlando Ribalta1.3 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
1.1 bases saved

About an average night — −1.1 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Changeup3 thrown (18% tonight, season 14%)
+0.3 bases cost
Clayton Beeter1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
1.8 bases cost

Overall 1.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider15 thrown (83% tonight, season 49%)
+0.3 bases cost
Brad Lord1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker4 thrown (40% tonight, season 23%)
−0.1 bases saved
Philliespitching
Andrew Painter4.0 IP · 17 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
2.6 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.0 bases better than average on 24 pitches. 6 of his 11 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Changeup16 thrown · 6 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Slider4 thrown (6% tonight, season 21%)
−0.2 bases saved
Curveball1 thrown (2% tonight, season 8%)
+0.1 bases cost
Tim Mayza1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
even

Faced only 3 batters.

Slider2 thrown (13% tonight, season 33%)
+0.1 bases cost
Four-Seamer1 thrown (6% tonight, season 6%)
0.0 bases
Orion Kerkering1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker1 thrown (10% tonight, season 18%)
0.0 bases
Brooks Raley1.0 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.7 bases cost

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.8 bases better than average on 9 pitches. The Sweeper got hit — 2 balls in play worth 4.3 expected bases.

Sinker3 thrown (13% tonight, season 22%)
+0.2 bases cost
Changeup2 thrown (9% tonight, season 12%)
+0.2 bases cost
Jonathan Bowlan1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.8 bases saved

About an average night — −0.8 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (40% tonight, season 45%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker4 thrown (27% tonight, season 12%)
−0.1 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (7% tonight, season 18%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Sweeper1 thrown (7% tonight, season 9%)
−0.1 bases saved
Jhoan Duran1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

About an average night — −0.4 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (31% tonight, season 28%) · 2 whiffs
−0.1 bases saved
Sweeper3 thrown (19% tonight, season 10%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Knuckle Curve1 thrown (6% tonight, season 11%)
0.0 bases
José Alvarado1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.4 bases cost

About an average night — +0.4 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Cutter6 thrown (32% tonight, season 33%) · 3 whiffs
−0.1 bases saved
Caleb Kilian0.3 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
1.4 bases cost

About an average night — +1.4 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Sinker6 thrown (32% tonight, season 13%)
+0.6 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (11% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Chase Shugart0.7 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

About an average night — −0.3 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sinker4 thrown (22% tonight, season 29%)
0.0 bases
Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 8%)
+0.1 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Nationals
Lucky
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Luis Arraez hit it

Every ball Luis Arraez hit this game, where it landed.

338'407'334'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.5 bases behind deserved.

5 PA1 H0 BB0 HBP0 K101.2 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 4Deserved: 4.5
PA 1 vs Jake Irvin: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 2 vs Jake Irvin: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 3 vs Will Dion: out — 0.4 deserved basesPA 4 vs Tom Cosgrove: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 5 vs Brad Lord: out — 0.1 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball61%

4.3 deserved bases on contact

Breaking28%

0.2 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed11%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Jake Irvin
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.9
Will Dion
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.4
Tom Cosgrove
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
Brad Lord
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Citizens Bank Park.

Nationals32 BIP · 10 BB/HBP
338'407'334'
Phillies30 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
338'407'334'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Citizens Bank Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information