Jhoan Duran
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Duran is among the league's best at preventing damage
The simulator expects 0.384 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 99th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (98th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
185 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Jhoan Duran.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Jhoan Duran | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .394 | .528 | 99th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 5% | 9% | 97th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 28% | 22% | 98th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Jhoan Duran leans on his splitter (47% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sweeper, saving 6.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 70% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 52 bases vs a replacement arm's 95 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
26.9 bases saved vs league average, across 695 pitches — 3.9 per 100.
His changeup isn't in the charts below — only 42 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Rarely used: sinker, cutter (1%)
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his splitter tilts 32 points more toward righties.
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Jhoan Duran's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His changeup isn't in these charts — only 42 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.393 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.370 to 0.412, based on 104 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.298 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.298) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.353 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.333 to 0.375, based on 81 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.274 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.274) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 7 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Jhoan Duran.
over 107 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 1.75 · WHIP 1.04 · BABIP against 0.349 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RedsJul 7, 2026
4 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs CardinalsAug 21, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs Blue JaysAug 8, 2026
4 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs TwinsAug 16, 2026
5 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.0
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs NationalsJun 24, 2026
3 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Jhoan Duran
HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% up, Barrel% against down, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.