Will Dion
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Dion is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.430 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 82nd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (83rd percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (14th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
148 batters faced · data through 2026-09-01.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Will Dion.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (27.5%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (30.5%)
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| Will Dion | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .519 | .527 | 82nd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 72nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 25% | 22% | 82nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Will Dion mixes his four-seam fastball (42%) and changeup (26%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 3.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 61 bases vs a replacement arm's 76 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
5.2 bases saved vs league average, across 551 pitches — 0.9 per 100.
His sinker isn't in the charts below — only 21 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 20 points more toward lefties.
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Will Dion's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup and Cutter have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sinker isn't in these charts — only 21 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.389 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.368 to 0.409, based on 55 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.414 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.452 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.426 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.406 to 0.446, based on 94 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.399 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.433 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 3 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 7 more bases than their contact off Will Dion earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 95 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.38 · WHIP 1.13 · BABIP against 0.292 (Lg median 0.288)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MetsAug 15, 2026
14 BF · 7 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 3.3
- Above replacement
- +3.9
- vs MarlinsAug 21, 2026
12 BF · 4 K, 2 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.2
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs YankeesJun 10, 2026
9 BF · 3 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.7
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs RaysJul 25, 2026
6 BF · 4 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs NationalsMay 26, 2026score only
12 BF · 3 K, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.2
- Above replacement
- +2.0