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José Alvarado

2026
Phillies· LHP · throws L· 58.1 IP· 5.86 ERA· 1.65 WHIP· 273 batters faced
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Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Cbetter than 48% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Alvarado sits right around league average

The simulator expects him to allow 0.455 bases per batter faced, better than 48% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting hard contact (89th percentile). His weakest skill is limiting walks (19th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 273 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with José Alvarado.

Roki SasakiDodgersBrock BurkeRedsDax FultonMarlinsTyler DavisWhite Sox

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Misses bats, limits hard contact” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 José AlvaradoLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).496.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)11%9%19th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)24%22%83rd

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

José Alvarado leans on his sinker (63% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 2.1 bases per 100 thrown against league average, and his sinker runs 4.9 mph faster than the median left-handed pitcher's.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+31 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 111 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 142 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He saved 7.0 bases against league average across 1,077 pitches, or 0.6 per 100 pitches.

Sinker
63%
97.8 mph · LHP median 92.9
21% whiffs · Lg median 13%
saved 2.1 per 10014.7 total
Cutter
32%
91.5 mph · LHP median 88.0
39% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 2.1 per 1007.7 total

He rarely throws his curveball and four-seam fastball (5% of his pitches combined).

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Sinker
65% vs LHH · LHP median 38%
62% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
Cutter
34% vs LHH · LHP median 19%
31% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (LHP median). Medians come from left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 41 and 111 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

José Alvarado's pitch movement, 2026

His Sinker has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape, but his other pitch has not.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

José Alvarado's pitch movement, 20260612061218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
SinkerSI
Rise 14.2 in
+5.9 vs Lg median
Break 14.0 in
−1.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
CutterFC
Rise 5.6 in
−2.1 vs Lg median
Break −3.0 in
−0.9 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.038 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.047

vs LHB119 PA0.401

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.401 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.382 to 0.421, based on 119 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.430 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB155 PA0.438

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.438 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.421 to 0.458, based on 155 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.442 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.3730.3960.4200.4440.468
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038).

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off José Alvarado this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Sal StewartHome run
110 mph · 27° · worth 3.9 bases
05/20 vs Reds
vs Jasson DomínguezHome run
106 mph · 27° · worth 3.9 bases
07/25 vs Yankees
vs Jackson MerrillHome run
110 mph · 24° · worth 3.8 bases
06/04 vs Padres
vs Esmerlyn ValdezTriple
113 mph · 17° · worth 2.5 bases
07/02 vs Pirates
vs Noelvi MarteDouble
88 mph · 32° · worth 2.4 bases
07/08 vs Reds

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about 14 more bases than their contact off José Alvarado deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.

Deserved by the contact he allowed81
Actually credited to batters95

Both bars count 163 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 5.86 · WHIP 1.65 · BABIP against 0.380 (Lg median 0.286)

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · José Alvarado

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is down, his BB% is up, his Barrel% against is down, his Hard-hit% against is down, his GB% against is down and his FB% against is up.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.