José Alvarado
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Alvarado has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.457 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 44th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (96th percentile). The soft spot is Command (29th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
215 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with José Alvarado.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| José Alvarado | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .510 | .528 | 44th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 29th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 25% | 22% | 86th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
José Alvarado leans on his sinker (63% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 1.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 23% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 87 bases vs a replacement arm's 110 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
5.1 bases saved vs league average, across 857 pitches — 0.6 per 100.
His curveball isn't in the charts below — only 28 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Rarely used: four-seam fastball (2%)
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Mix by batter side
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José Alvarado's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His curveball isn't in these charts — only 28 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.391 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.370 to 0.411, based on 93 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.445 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.429 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.407 to 0.448, based on 123 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.434 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 14 more bases than their contact off José Alvarado earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 127 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 6.07 · WHIP 1.57 · BABIP against 0.369 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PadresMay 27, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs NationalsJun 25, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs MetsJul 18, 2026
4 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs NationalsAug 6, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs DodgersJul 21, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · José Alvarado
HR allowed% down, BB% up, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.