Chase Shugart
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Shugart has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.460 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 40th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (7th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
180 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Chase Shugart.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Chase Shugart | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .603 | .528 | 40th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 42nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 24% | 22% | 69th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Chase Shugart mixes his cutter (31%) and sinker (29%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 3.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 23% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 84 bases vs a replacement arm's 92 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
5.9 bases cost vs league average, across 710 pitches — 0.8 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Chase Shugart's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 4 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.444 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.424 to 0.465, based on 84 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.497 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.497) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.405 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.383 to 0.425, based on 96 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.475 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 6 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 8 more bases than their contact off Chase Shugart earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 110 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.71 · WHIP 1.31 · BABIP against 0.287 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MetsJul 18, 2026
6 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs YankeesJul 26, 2026
8 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.7
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs RedsMay 19, 2026
6 BF · 3 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs PiratesMay 15, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.7
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs CubsApr 14, 2026
8 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.3
- Above replacement
- +1.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Chase Shugart
HR allowed% up, K% up, Barrel% against up, GB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.