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Reds at Phillies · May 19, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Reds 44% · tied 23% · Phillies 33%

Reds edged it

The simulator saw a near coin flip, and Reds came out ahead of Phillies 4-1.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.