Orion Kerkering
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Kerkering has been below average at limiting bases
The simulator expects him to allow 0.461 bases per batter faced, better than 37% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting hard contact (90th percentile). His weakest skill is limiting walks (15th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.
His grade rests on 268 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Orion Kerkering.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
He lands in the “Limits hard contact, pitches to contact” corner of the map.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)
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| Orion Kerkering | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .473 | .527 | — |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 12% | 9% | 15th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 69th |
A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.
Arsenal
Orion Kerkering mixes his sweeper (42%) and four-seam fastball (34%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 2.5 bases per 100 thrown against league average, and his sweeper runs 3.5 mph faster than the median right-handed pitcher's.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
He allowed about 109 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 140 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
He saved 4.3 bases against league average across 1,093 pitches, or 0.4 per 100 pitches.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 23 points more toward lefties.
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Orion Kerkering's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches has clearly moved from its early-season shape.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
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By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.043 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.036 to +0.051
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.441 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.423 to 0.461, based on 127 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.494 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
His raw rate vs LHB (0.494) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.399 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.379 to 0.418, based on 142 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.387 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so even his weaker side is a strength.
How to read this chart
- Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
- The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
- The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
- The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
- Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
2 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.
7 hits off him had less than a 20% chance of being hits.
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Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off Orion Kerkering deserved.
Both bars count 162 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
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ERA 4.97 · WHIP 1.45 · BABIP against 0.287 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
- vs CubsApr 13, 2026score only
5 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +2.2
- vs Blue JaysJun 9, 2026score only
4 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs GuardiansMay 23, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs GiantsApr 28, 2026score only
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs RoyalsJul 4, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Orion Kerkering
Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is down, his BB% is up, his Barrel% against is up, his GB% against is down and his FB% against is up.
Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.