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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 12, 2026
Mariners
8
Final
Rays
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Mariners 87% · tied 6% · Rays 8%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
8
2
Est. bases
16.9
9.0
Total bases
18
7
Home runs
2
1
Barrels
2
0
Walks/HBP
6
5
Strikeouts
9
8
GIDP
3
0
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
6
7
Errors
0
2

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Mariners lead on deserved runs by 4.5.

Rays deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20-4.5-6
Mariners deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Rays +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Mariners +2.2 (80% band -4.0 to 0.0) · actual Mariners +3Through inning 3: deserved Mariners +2.5 (80% band -4.0 to -1.0) · actual Mariners +3Through inning 4: deserved Mariners +4.8 (80% band -7.0 to -2.0) · actual Mariners +7Through inning 5: deserved Mariners +4.7 (80% band -7.0 to -2.0) · actual Mariners +7Through inning 6: deserved Mariners +4.7 (80% band -7.0 to -2.0) · actual Mariners +7Through inning 7: deserved Mariners +4.7 (80% band -7.0 to -2.0) · actual Mariners +7Through inning 8: deserved Mariners +3.5 (80% band -6.0 to -1.0) · actual Mariners +5Through inning 9: deserved Mariners +4.5 (80% band -7.0 to -2.0) · actual Mariners +6123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRays sideMariners side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Mariners
Rays
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Rays
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Mariners
Rays
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Marinerspitching
Emerson Hancock1.7 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

About an average night — −0.7 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Sweeper2 thrown (11% tonight, season 16%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
José A. Ferrer1.3 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 20 pitches.

Changeup5 thrown (18% tonight, season 17%)
+0.2 bases cost
Slider3 thrown (11% tonight, season 12%)
0.0 bases
Nick Davila2.0 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.5 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 19 pitches.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (8% tonight, season 11%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Gabe Speier1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Michael Rucker1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

About an average night — −0.7 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Curveball8 thrown (38% tonight, season 32%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Eduard Bazardo1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.4 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 4 balls in play worth 4.6 expected bases. Overall 2.4 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper6 thrown (33% tonight, season 35%) · 2 whiffs
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Andrés Muñoz1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.8 bases saved

3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Slider.

Four-Seamer12 thrown (60% tonight, season 41%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Rayspitching
Ian Seymour3.3 IP · 19 BF · 3 K · 3 BB
4.7 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.1 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 20 pitches.

Slider2 thrown (3% tonight, season 5%)
−0.1 bases saved
Curveball1 thrown
+0.5 bases cost
Cole Sulser0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. Overall 1.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (40% tonight, season 45%)
−0.1 bases saved
Cutter1 thrown (10% tonight, season 12%)
−0.1 bases saved
Chris Roycroft3.0 IP · 9 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
2.9 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 2.8 bases better than average on 19 pitches. 4 of his 5 whiffs came on the Sinker.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (18% tonight, season 20%)
+0.2 bases cost
Craig Kimbrel1.7 IP · 8 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases cost

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 6 pitches. The Sweeper got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.2 expected bases.

Knuckle Curve3 thrown (7% tonight, season 9%)
0.0 bases
Kevin Kelly0.3 IP · 2 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases cost

Faced only 2 batters.

Sinker6 thrown (67% tonight, season 58%)
+0.3 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Rays
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Jonathan Aranda hit it

Every ball Jonathan Aranda hit this game, where it landed.

315'415'322'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.9 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA1 H0 BB1 HBP0 K100.5 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 4.1
PA 1 vs Emerson Hancock: out — 0.6 deserved basesPA 2 vs José A. Ferrer: hit by pitchPA 3 vs Gabe Speier: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 4 vs Eduard Bazardo: home run — 2.4 deserved bases
HBP
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball71%

3.1 deserved bases on contact

Breaking29%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Eduard Bazardo
Actual
4.0
Deserved
2.4
José A. Ferrer
HBP
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Emerson Hancock
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.6
Gabe Speier
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Tropicana Field.

Mariners26 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
315'415'322'
Rays23 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
315'415'322'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Tropicana Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information