Blue Jays

2026

#12 of 30Average· .505 true win%· modeled team strength

Record

64-68 .485

xRecord · simulator

61-71 +3.3 vs expected

Grade · runs scored / allowed

OffenseF·PitchingC

Snapshot

Record, run differential and luck

Identity

Blue Jays64-68

Offense: Elite contact, bottom-tier quality. Pitching: Elite quiet contact, weak command.

Run differential

-55 run diff

Score 3.9/g, allow 4.4/g — the bats go quiet too often.

Sim vs. results

3.3 wins above expected

The simulator expected 60.7 wins from their game-by-game play; they have 64.

Team identity

Rank of 30 on empirical rates

Offense style

Contact-first ground-ball lineup

How this lineup attacks — direction, trajectory, and contact quality against the other 29 teams. Style, not skill.

Pull rate39.2% · 21st of 30 · Balanced spray

34.8%43.4%

Fly-ball rate21.8% · 24th of 30 · Ground-based

19.6%26.5%

Barrel rate5.4% · 29th of 30 · Contact-first

5.4%8.8%

Blue Jaysone teamLg median

Hitters

Every hitter, with a 50% probable range

Balanced: the top 3 hitters account for +274 bases above replacement; the other 19 combine for +403.

Every hitter, ranked by contact quality (EB/PA)

← WorseBetter →

Lg avg
(0.438)

0.3550.4410.5280.6140.701

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Aaron Judge (0.701)

How to read this chart

The dot is the model's best estimate. The bar around it is the middle 50% of where that estimate could land — a short bar means a lot of evidence, a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the model cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their rank numbers are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league line: the green side is better than league average for this metric, the red side worse.
The dashed average and the teal league-best line are the whole league, not just the players listed here.
Click any player to open their page.

BB% vs HR%

League best:BB% Will Wagner (22.2%)HR% Joshua Báez (9.8%)

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts).

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster: BB% across the bottom, HR% up the side, both as a share of the plate appearances he took.
The dashed lines are the average across every qualified player in the league, not just this roster — so a corner means better or worse than the league, not better or worse than a teammate.
The league best is named above the chart rather than drawn on it. Stretching the axes out to reach it would squeeze this roster into a corner and pile the faces on top of each other, and picking a player out is what this chart is for.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.

Too few plate appearances to rank (1):

Daz Cameron (17 PA)

Pitchers

Every pitcher, with a 50% probable range

Star-led: the top 3 pitchers account for +93 bases above replacement; the other 16 combine for +1.

Every pitcher, ranked by run prevention (xEB/PA)

← BetterWorse →

Lg avg
(0.456)

0.3640.4000.4350.4710.507

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Jacob Misiorowski (0.364)

How to read this chart

The dot is the model's best estimate. The bar around it is the middle 50% of where that estimate could land — a short bar means a lot of evidence, a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the model cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their rank numbers are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league line: the green side is better than league average for this metric, the red side worse.
The dashed average and the teal league-best line are the whole league, not just the players listed here.
Click any player to open their page.

BB% allowed vs HR% allowed

League best:BB% allowed Bryse Wilson (3.3%)HR% allowed Mason Miller (0.0%)

Dot size = K% (bigger = more strikeouts recorded).

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster: BB% allowed across the bottom, HR% allowed up the side, both as a share of the batters he faced.
The dashed lines are the average across every qualified player in the league, not just this roster — so a corner means better or worse than the league, not better or worse than a teammate.
The league best is named above the chart rather than drawn on it. Stretching the axes out to reach it would squeeze this roster into a corner and pile the faces on top of each other, and picking a player out is what this chart is for.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.

Too few batters faced to rank (8):

Season value

Every bat and arm on one bases-above-replacement scale

+771

bases above replacement · 25th of 30 teams · from 22 hitters and 19 pitchers

Who carried the team

Hitters create bases, pitchers prevent them — one roster on one replacement scale.

Above replacement

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hitter

104

George Springer Hitter

Kazuma Okamoto Hitter

Daulton Varsho Hitter

Alejandro Kirk Hitter

Jesús Sánchez Hitter

Davis Schneider Hitter

Brandon Valenzuela Hitter

Nathan Lukes Hitter

Kevin Gausman Starter

Below replacement

Max Scherzer Reliever

-14

Brendon Little Reliever

-10

Braydon Fisher Starter

Mason Fluharty Reliever

-5

How to read this chart

Every hitter's bat and every pitcher's arm, both measured against a freely-available replacement. The tag marks the role (Hitter / Starter / Reliever).
Modeled (shrunk) rates, like the boards above — a two-way player appears once for his bat and once for his arm.
The total sums the whole roster; this board shows the biggest movers. Click a name for their page.

Recent games

The team's last 10 games. Click into any one to see the full simulator breakdown.

See all Blue Jays games →