Blue Jays

2026

#15 of 30Average· .499 vs. an average team· team strength

Record

79-83 .488

xRecord · simulator

76-86 +2.7 vs expected

Grade · runs scored / allowed

OffenseF·PitchingB-

Snapshot

Three cards cover the record, the run differential and how lucky the team has been.

Identity

Blue Jays79-83

The offense is elite on contact and bottom-tier on quality. The pitching is elite on quiet contact and bottom-tier on command.

Run differential

-46 run diff

They score 4.0 runs a game and allow 4.3, against a league average of 4.5. The offense is the bigger problem.

Luck

2.7 wins above expected

The simulator says their game-by-game play deserved 76.3 wins. They have 79.

Team identity

See where the team ranks among all 30 on runs and on four hitting and pitching rates.

Offense style

This lineup rarely barrels the ball and uses the whole field.

These strips compare how this lineup hits the ball with the other 29 teams. Pull rate and fly-ball rate are a style, not a skill, but a higher barrel rate is better.

Pull rate38.6% · 23rd of 30 · Uses the whole field

34.7%43.5%

Fly-ball rate21.9% · 23rd of 30 · Hits it on the ground

19.4%26.0%

Barrel rate5.3% · 29th of 30 · Few barrels

5.2%8.8%

Blue Jaysone teamLg median

Hitters

Every hitter with 25 or more plate appearances is ranked here, with a 50% probable range.

This lineup is balanced. Its top 3 hitters account for +372 bases above replacement, and the other 19 combine for +563.

Hitters by estimated bases per plate appearance (EB/PA)

Lg median
(0.430)

0.3400.4270.5140.6000.687

← WorseBetter →

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Aaron Judge (0.687)

How to read this chart

The dot is the simulator's best estimate. The bar around it covers the middle 50% of where that estimate could land. A short bar means a lot of evidence, and a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the simulator cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their ranks are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league median, with the better side green and the worse side red.
The dashed median and the teal league-best line cover the whole league, not just these players.
Click any player to open his page.

BB% vs HR%

League best:BB% Davis Schneider (18.6%)HR% Hunter Goodman (7.1%)

A bigger dot means more strikeouts, which is worse for a hitter.

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster, with BB% across the bottom and HR% up the side, both as a share of the plate appearances he took.
Higher is better on both, so the best hitters sit top-right.
The dashed lines are the league-wide rates this season, so a corner means better or worse than the league, not than a teammate.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.
The league best is named above the chart, among hitters with 50 or more plate appearances. More on the About page

1 more hitter has fewer than 25 plate appearances, too few to rank:

Rudy Martin Jr. (3 PA)

Pitchers

Every pitcher with 40 or more batters faced is ranked here, with a 50% probable range.

This staff is star-led. Its top 3 pitchers account for +160 bases above replacement, and the other 18 combine for +125.

Pitchers by estimated bases allowed per plate appearance (xEB/PA)

Lg median
(0.454)

0.3670.4010.4350.4690.503

← BetterWorse →

Best estimate50% probable rangeLeague best: Jacob Misiorowski (0.367)

How to read this chart

The dot is the simulator's best estimate. The bar around it covers the middle 50% of where that estimate could land. A short bar means a lot of evidence, and a long one means the sample is still thin.
Where two players' bars overlap, the simulator cannot honestly separate them, however far apart their ranks are.
The tinted halves split at the dashed league median, with the better side green and the worse side red.
The dashed median and the teal league-best line cover the whole league, not just these players.
Click any player to open his page.

BB% allowed vs HR% allowed

League best:BB% allowed Bryse Wilson (3.7%)HR% allowed Blake Snell (0.0%)

A bigger dot means more strikeouts, which is better for a pitcher.

How to read this chart

Each face is one player on this roster, with BB% allowed across the bottom and HR% allowed up the side, both as a share of the batters he faced.
Lower is better on both, so the best pitchers sit bottom-left.
The dashed lines are the league-wide rates this season, so a corner means better or worse than the league, not than a teammate.
Tap a headshot to open the player.Hover a headshot for the player.
The league best is named above the chart, among pitchers with 100 or more batters faced. More on the About page

8 more pitchers have fewer than 40 batters faced, too few to rank:

Season value

This puts every ranked hitter and pitcher on one scale, bases above replacement.

+1221

bases above replacement · 25th of 30 teams · from 22 hitters and 21 pitchers

Who carried the team

Bars to the right helped the team more than a replacement player would have.

Above replacement

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Hitter

133

Kazuma Okamoto Hitter

124

George Springer Hitter

115

Daulton Varsho Hitter

Alejandro Kirk Hitter

Kevin Gausman Starter

Nathan Lukes Hitter

Jesús Sánchez Hitter

Dylan Cease Starter

Davis Schneider Hitter

Below replacement

Brendon Little Reliever

-13

Adam Macko Reliever

-7

Braydon Fisher Starter

-3

Replacement level

How to read this chart

Each bar is one hitter's bat or one pitcher's arm, measured in bases above or below a freely available replacement player. Longer to the right is better. The tag marks the role: Hitter, Starter or Reliever.
The rates behind each bar are the simulator's estimates, the same ones the rankings above use, and a two-way player appears once for his bat and once for his arm.
The total adds up the whole roster, while this board shows the 10 biggest gains and the 6 biggest drags. Click a name for his page.

Recent games

These are the team's last 10 games. Click into any one to see the full simulator breakdown.

See all Blue Jays games →