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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Blue Jays at Rangers · Sep 20, 2026

Blue Jays
7
Final
Rangers
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Blue Jays 40% · tied 13% · Rangers 47%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
7
2
Est. bases
12.4
14.1
Total bases
15
11
Home runs
0
1
Barrels
0
1
Walks/HBP
7
4
Strikeouts
5
7
GIDP
2
1
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
9
9
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Rangers lead on deserved runs by 0.3.

Rangers deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+4+0.3-5
Blue Jays deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Blue Jays +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +1Through inning 2: deserved Rangers +0.1 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +1Through inning 3: deserved Rangers +0.1 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +2Through inning 4: deserved Rangers +1.1 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 5: deserved Rangers +1.1 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +1Through inning 6: deserved Rangers +1.4 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +1Through inning 7: deserved Blue Jays +0.7 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning -2.1 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +5Through inning 8: deserved Blue Jays +1.1 (80% band -5.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +5Through inning 9: deserved Rangers +0.3 (80% band -4.0 to +4.0) · this inning +1.4 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +5123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRangers sideBlue Jays side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Rangers
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
José Rodríguez 4 BF
1.2
Rangers
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Blue Jayspitching
Spencer Miles3.0 IP · 11 BF · 4 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 22 pitches.

Curveball8 thrown (17% tonight, season 25%)
−0.4 bases saved
Four-Seamer4 thrown (9% tonight, season 15%)
0.0 bases
Spencer Arrighetti2.3 IP · 11 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
1.3 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.4 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Sweeper4 thrown (9% tonight, season 12%)
+0.4 bases cost
Four-Seamer2 thrown (5% tonight, season 29%)
−0.1 bases saved
Mason Fluharty0.3 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Sweeper3 thrown (20% tonight, season 40%)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (7% tonight, season 10%)
−0.1 bases saved
Paul Sewald0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Four-Seamer1 thrown (33% tonight, season 56%)
+0.1 bases cost
José Rodríguez1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

About an average night — −0.6 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider2 thrown · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Tyler Rogers1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

About an average night — +0.1 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Louis Varland1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
1.0 bases cost

The Knuckle Curve got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.5 expected bases.

Slider2 thrown (13% tonight, season 8%)
+0.3 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 18%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Rangerspitching
Jacob deGrom4.3 IP · 23 BF · 2 K · 4 BB
1.8 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 40 pitches. 7 of his 12 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Robert Garcia1.7 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

About an average night — −0.9 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider1 thrown (9% tonight, season 20%)
0.0 bases
Tyler Alexander0.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
1.9 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. The Sinker got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.8 expected bases.

Cutter3 thrown (23% tonight, season 21%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sweeper3 thrown (23% tonight, season 18%)
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer1 thrown (8% tonight, season 18%)
−0.1 bases saved
Chase Silseth0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (22% tonight, season 42%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Adam Macko2.3 IP · 10 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.1 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 20 pitches.

Other1 thrown
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Jake Burger hit it

Every ball Jake Burger hit this game, where it landed.

329'409'326'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.6 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP0 K106.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 4.4
PA 1 vs Spencer Miles: out — 1.0 deserved basesPA 2 vs Spencer Arrighetti: home run — 2.3 deserved basesPA 3 vs Mason Fluharty: walkPA 4 vs Tyler Rogers: out — 0.1 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball58%

2.3 deserved bases on contact

Breaking42%

1.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Spencer Arrighetti
Actual
4.0
Deserved
2.3
Spencer Miles
Actual
0.0
Deserved
1.0
Mason Fluharty
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Tyler Rogers
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Globe Life Field.

Blue Jays31 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
329'409'326'
Rangers27 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
329'409'326'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Globe Life Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information