Tyler Alexander
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Alexander is among the league's best at preventing damage
The simulator expects 0.417 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 90th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (97th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
237 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Tyler Alexander.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Tyler Alexander | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .388 | .528 | 90th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 79th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 31st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Tyler Alexander mixes his changeup (24%) and cutter (22%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 4.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 85 bases vs a replacement arm's 122 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
24.0 bases saved vs league average, across 914 pitches — 2.6 per 100.
Rarely used: splitter, slider (0%)
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Mix by batter side
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Tyler Alexander's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.396 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.375 to 0.416, based on 98 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.346 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.346) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.434 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.415 to 0.454, based on 140 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.357 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.357) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 11 more bases than their contact off Tyler Alexander earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 173 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.23 · WHIP 1.29 · BABIP against 0.333 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PiratesApr 22, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs DodgersApr 11, 2026
9 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.4
- Above replacement
- +2.2
- vs GiantsAug 5, 2026
5 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs D-backsMay 11, 2026
5 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs RoyalsJun 10, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.9
- Above replacement
- +1.6
Trends
Multi-season trends · Tyler Alexander
HR allowed% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against up, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.