Louis Varland
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Varland is among the league's best at preventing damage
The simulator expects 0.389 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 99th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (97th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
258 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Louis Varland.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Louis Varland | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .408 | .528 | 99th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 77th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 27% | 22% | 91st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Louis Varland mixes his four-seam fastball (40%) and knuckle curve (31%). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 6.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 3.6 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 84 bases vs a replacement arm's 133 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
35.3 bases saved vs league average, across 1,024 pitches — 3.4 per 100.
Rarely used: sinker (3%)
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his knuckle curve tilts 15 points more toward righties.
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Louis Varland's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.395 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.376 to 0.415, based on 141 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.306 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.306) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.356 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.337 to 0.377, based on 118 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.332 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 10 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Louis Varland.
over 158 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 1.22 · WHIP 0.98 · BABIP against 0.288 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs CubsJun 20, 2026
7 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +3.0
- vs PhilliesAug 8, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.2
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs RockiesMar 30, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs BrewersApr 14, 2026
6 BF · 2 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.8
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs PiratesMay 22, 2026
6 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.9
- Above replacement
- +2.1
Trends
Multi-season trends · Louis Varland
xEB/PA down, HR allowed% down, K% up, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against up, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.