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Lazaro Estrada

2026
Blue Jays· RHP · throws R· 13.0 IP· 5.54 ERA· 1.38 WHIP· 57 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 15% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Estrada allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.480 bases per batter faced, better than 15% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting walks (15th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 57 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Andrew HoffmannD-backsAJ Smith-ShawverBravesYoendrys GómezTwinsJR RitchieBraves

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Lazaro Estrada mixes his four-seam fastball (44%) and slider (32%). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 3.0 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+7 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 23 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 30 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He saved 1.6 bases against league average across 173 pitches, or 0.9 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
44%
92.8 mph · RHP median 95.1
23% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 0.6 per 1000.6 total
Slider
32%
85.6 mph · RHP median 86.9
26% whiffs · Lg median 33%
saved 3.0 per 1002.2 total
Curveball
not charted
16%
76.2 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
—
Splitter
not charted
6%
84.4 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—

His curveball and splitter aren't in the charts below, because too few of each were tracked this season.

He rarely throws his cutter (2% of his pitches).

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 15 points more toward lefties.

Four-Seam Fastball
55% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
33% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from the 384 right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Lazaro Estrada's pitch movement, 2026

Lazaro Estrada's pitch movement, 2026-606061218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 19.2 in
+3.5 vs Lg median
Break 7.3 in
−0.4 vs Lg median
SliderSL
Rise 3.0 in
+1.2 vs Lg median
Break −4.5 in
−0.8 vs Lg median
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His curveball and splitter aren't in these charts, because too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.042 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050

vs LHB27 PA0.508

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.508 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.486 to 0.530, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.515 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB30 PA0.466

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.466 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.444 to 0.489, based on 30 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.432 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.4240.4530.4820.5120.541
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Lazaro Estrada this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Pete Crow-ArmstrongHome run
107 mph · 32° · worth 3.9 bases
06/20 vs Cubs
vs Nick FortesHome run
100 mph · 33° · worth 1.9 bases
07/21 vs Rays
vs Masataka YoshidaOut
99 mph · 23° · worth 1.2 bases
08/13 vs Red Sox
vs Ben WilliamsonSingle
103 mph · 10° · worth 1.0 bases
07/21 vs Rays
vs Bryson StottSingle
97 mph · 13° · worth 1.0 bases
08/09 vs Phillies

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Lazaro Estrada

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is down, his BB% is up and his K% is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.