The simulator expects 0.481 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 11th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Command (14th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
57 batters faced · data through 2026-09-02.
▸How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 481 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Lazaro Estrada mixes his four-seam fastball (44%) and slider (32%). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 3.0 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
▲ +6 bases better than a replacement arm this season
allowed 23 bases vs a replacement arm's 29 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
Bases vs average
All pitches
1.6 bases saved vs league average, across 173 pitches — 0.9 per 100.
Lg avg
Four-Seam Fastball
44%
92.8 mph · RHP median 95.1
23% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 0.6 per 1000.6 total
Slider
32%
85.6 mph · RHP median 86.9
26% whiffs · Lg median 33%
saved 3.0 per 1002.2 total
Curveball
not charted
16%
76.2 mph · RHP median 81.0
—
—
Splitter
not charted
6%
84.4 mph · RHP median 86.8
—
—
His curveball and splitter aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
Rarely used: cutter (2%)
▸How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.
Mix by batter side
Four-Seam Fastball
55% vs LHH · RHP median 41%
33% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
▸How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 359 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.
Lazaro Estrada's pitch movement, 2026
Pitch
Risein · vs Lg median
Breakin · vs Lg median
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 19.2 in
+3.5 vs Lg median
Break 7.3 in
−0.4 vs Lg median
SliderSL
Rise 3.0 in
+1.1 vs Lg median
Break −4.5 in
−0.9 vs Lg median
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
▸How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.
By appearance
How the stuff has held up outing to outing
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His curveball and splitter aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
How he fares against lefties and righties
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.049
vs LHB27 PA0.547
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.547 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.525 to 0.569, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.515 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Lg median
vs RHB30 PA0.505
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.505 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.483 to 0.528, based on 30 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.432 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.433 EB/PA.
Lg median
0.4170.4590.5010.5430.585
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
▸How to read this chart
Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
“Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
What hitters do when they connect
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Where every ball hit off Lazaro Estrada landed this season.
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.
Best games
His biggest outings this year
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
