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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 7, 2026
Blue Jays
5
Final
Phillies
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Blue Jays 71% · tied 12% · Phillies 17%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
4
Est. bases
14.9
5.6
Total bases
17
7
Home runs
2
0
Barrels
2
0
Walks/HBP
5
10
Strikeouts
7
6
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
3
1
Left on base
9
11
Errors
2
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Blue Jays lead on deserved runs by 2.1.

Phillies deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20-2.1-1
Blue Jays deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved even (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Blue Jays +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.9 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Blue Jays +1.2 (80% band -3.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Blue Jays +1.4 (80% band -4.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +1Through inning 5: deserved Blue Jays +2.0 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.6 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +1Through inning 6: deserved Blue Jays +3.0 (80% band -6.0 to 0.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +2Through inning 7: deserved Blue Jays +1.8 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +2Through inning 8: deserved Blue Jays +3.0 (80% band -6.0 to 0.0) · this inning -1.2 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +3Through inning 9: deserved Blue Jays +2.1 (80% band -6.0 to +1.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualPhillies sideBlue Jays side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Brett Bateman
3.0
Phillies
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Phillies
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Blue Jayspitching
José Soriano4.7 IP · 20 BF · 3 K · 3 BB
2.1 bases saved

His Knuckle Curve did the damage prevention — 2.1 bases better than average on 36 pitches. 12 of his 18 whiffs came on the Knuckle Curve.

Mason Fluharty0.3 IP · 1 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Cutter4 thrown (67% tonight, season 48%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Sweeper2 thrown (33% tonight, season 42%)
0.0 bases
Lazaro Estrada1.3 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.5 bases saved

His Curveball did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 10 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases.

Four-Seamer10 thrown (37% tonight, season 47%) · 1 whiff
+0.6 bases cost
Splitter1 thrown (4% tonight, season 6%)
0.0 bases
Brendon Little0.7 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.8 bases cost

About an average night — +0.8 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Knuckle Curve6 thrown (27% tonight, season 32%)
+0.5 bases cost
Sinker2 thrown (9% tonight, season 30%)
+0.3 bases cost
Matt Waldron1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Cutter5 thrown (42% tonight, season 19%)
0.0 bases
Sweeper2 thrown (17% tonight, season 15%)
0.0 bases
Tyler Rogers1.0 IP · 8 BF · 0 K · 3 BB
1.0 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (54% strikes).

Slider7 thrown (20% tonight, season 23%)
+0.8 bases cost
Philliespitching
Zack Wheeler5.3 IP · 28 BF · 6 K · 5 BB
2.5 bases cost

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 2.4 bases better than average on 22 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 5 balls in play worth 6.0 expected bases.

Tim Mayza1.7 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 14 pitches. Overall 1.7 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (14% tonight, season 6%)
0.0 bases
Caleb Kilian1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases cost

Overall 1.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Chase Shugart1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Sinker7 thrown (37% tonight, season 28%) · 1 whiff
−0.6 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Josh Smith hit it

Every ball Josh Smith hit this game, where it landed.

338'407'334'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.9 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP1 K103.8 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.1
PA 1 vs Zack Wheeler: strikeoutPA 2 vs Zack Wheeler: single — 0.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Zack Wheeler: single — 1.2 deserved basesPA 4 vs Caleb Kilian: home run — 3.0 deserved bases
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball53%

0.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking33%

4.2 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed13%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Caleb Kilian
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.0
Zack Wheeler
K
Actual
2.0
Deserved
2.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Citizens Bank Park.

Blue Jays29 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
338'407'334'
Phillies25 BIP · 10 BB/HBP
338'407'334'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Citizens Bank Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information