Joe Mantiply

2026

Blue Jays· LHP · throws L· 17.2 IP· 2.04 ERA· 1.13 WHIP· 71 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

C+53rd percentile run prevention

RelieverCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Mantiply sits right around league average

The simulator expects 0.448 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 53rd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (79th percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (29th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
71 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Joe Mantiply leans on his sinker (46% of pitches). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 2.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

+5 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 31 bases vs a replacement arm's 36 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

saved 0.5 per 1001.4 saved across 264

Sinker

46% +10 pts vs '25

88.8 mph · lg 93.2 +0.4 mph vs '25

4% whiffs · lg 11%

cost 0.8 per 1000.9 cost across 121

Curveball

28% −8 pts vs '25

80.5 mph · lg 80.0 +1.8 mph vs '25

23% whiffs · lg 27%

saved 0.9 per 1000.7 saved across 73

Changeup

27%

80.8 mph · lg 85.1 +0.1 mph vs '25

25% whiffs · lg 29%

saved 2.3 per 1001.6 saved across 70

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Sinker

51% vs LHH

40% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB35 PA0.388

vs RHB37 PA0.426

0.3560.3820.4070.4330.459

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Joe Mantiply landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Shohei OhtaniHome run

EV 108 mph · LA 25° · EB 3.3

04/06 vs Dodgers

vs Matt WallnerDouble

EV 109 mph · LA 21° · EB 2.6

05/03 vs Twins

vs Jahmai JonesSingle

EV 105 mph · LA 11° · EB 1.9

05/15 vs Tigers

vs Tim TawaDouble

EV 104 mph · LA 17° · EB 1.8

04/17 vs D-backs

vs Bo NaylorSingle

EV 109 mph · LA 8° · EB 1.2

04/24 vs Guardians

Luck check

Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Wilyer AbreuSingleCheap hit

EV 77 mph · LA 32° · EB 0.1 · xBA .060

04/29 vs Red Sox

Earned vs. actual

Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

Earned off his contact allowed26

Actually credited to batters22

Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Joe Mantiply.

over 50 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

ERA 2.04 · WHIP 1.13 · BABIP against 0.306 (lg 0.288)

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
Apr 5, 2026	White Sox	4 BF · 3 K	0.1	+2.0
Apr 22, 2026	Angels	6 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 1 H	1.4	+1.6
May 11, 2026	Rays	4 BF · 0 K	0.5	+1.5
Apr 10, 2026	Twins	3 BF · 3 K	0.0	+1.5
Apr 27, 2026	Red Sox	4 BF · 2 K, 1 H	0.7	+1.3