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Rays at Blue Jays · May 11, 2026
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Rays 39% · tied 17% · Blue Jays 45%
Rays stole one
Blue Jays did more to deserve the win, but Rays took it 8-5.
- This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
- The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.