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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 3, 2026
Marlins
12
Final
Athletics
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Marlins 93% · tied 3% · Athletics 3%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
12
5
Est. bases
22.4
12.9
Total bases
26
14
Home runs
5
1
Barrels
4
2
Walks/HBP
8
4
Strikeouts
12
8
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
2
0
Left on base
7
7
Errors
0
1

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Marlins
Athletics
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Marlins
Athletics
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Marlinspitching
Tyler Phillips3.3 IP · 18 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
4.0 bases cost

The Splitter got hit — 4 balls in play worth 2.5 expected bases. 3 of his 8 whiffs came on the Sweeper.

Michael Petersen0.7 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.2 bases cost

About an average night — +0.2 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer14 thrown (67% tonight, season 61%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (5% tonight, season 12%)
+0.1 bases cost
Tyler Zuber1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Calvin Faucher1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Curveball6 thrown (30% tonight, season 14%)
0.0 bases
Cutter4 thrown (20% tonight, season 38%)
+0.3 bases cost
Four-Seamer4 thrown (20% tonight, season 9%)
−0.5 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (5% tonight, season 15%)
−0.1 bases saved
Slider1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Lake Bachar2.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 6 pitches. Overall 1.7 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Curveball4 thrown (17% tonight, season 17%)
−0.2 bases saved
Splitter1 thrown (4% tonight, season 9%)
+0.2 bases cost
William Kempner1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Cutter1 thrown (10% tonight, season 13%)
+0.1 bases cost
Athleticspitching
Jack Perkins3.7 IP · 23 BF · 8 K · 4 BB
3.7 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 5.8 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 27 pitches.

Slider1 thrown
0.0 bases
José Suarez1.3 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
1.8 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.7 expected bases. Overall 1.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sinker2 thrown (11% tonight, season 9%)
0.0 bases
Justin Sterner1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases cost

About an average night — +0.7 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Mark Leiter Jr.1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

His Curveball did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 5 pitches. 4 of his 6 whiffs came on the Curveball.

Curveball5 thrown (38% tonight, season 19%) · 4 whiffs
−0.8 bases saved
Splitter4 thrown (31% tonight, season 33%) · 1 whiff
+0.6 bases cost
Cutter2 thrown (15% tonight, season 9%)
0.0 bases
Sinker2 thrown (15% tonight, season 26%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Mason Barnett2.0 IP · 11 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
3.8 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.9 expected bases. Overall 3.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Kyle Stowers hit it

Every ball Kyle Stowers hit this game, where it landed.

330'406'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +2.0 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA4 H0 BB0 HBP0 K108.6 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 10Deserved: 8.0
PA 1 vs Jack Perkins: single — 0.9 deserved basesPA 2 vs Jack Perkins: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Jack Perkins: single — 1.3 deserved basesPA 4 vs Justin Sterner: home run — 2.2 deserved basesPA 5 vs Mason Barnett: home run — 3.5 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking43%

4.8 deserved bases on contact

Fastball36%

3.1 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed21%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Mason Barnett
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.5
Jack Perkins
Actual
2.0
Deserved
2.3
Justin Sterner
Actual
4.0
Deserved
2.2
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Sutter Health Park.

Marlins26 BIP · 8 BB/HBP
330'406'325'
Athletics27 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
330'406'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Sutter Health Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information