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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 9, 2026
Angels
3
Final
Marlins
12
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Angels 16% · tied 13% · Marlins 71%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
3
12
Est. bases
10.6
15.1
Total bases
12
22
Home runs
1
2
Barrels
1
1
Walks/HBP
4
5
Strikeouts
12
12
GIDP
0
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
10
8
Errors
2
2

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Marlins lead on deserved runs by 1.9.

Marlins deserved lead ↑
0+5+10+1.9+9
Angels deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Marlins +1.2 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual Marlins +2Through inning 2: deserved Angels +0.4 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.6 deserved runs · actual Marlins +1Through inning 3: deserved Angels +0.9 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Marlins +1Through inning 4: deserved Angels +0.6 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Marlins +2Through inning 5: deserved Marlins +2.5 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning +3.1 deserved runs · actual Marlins +8Through inning 6: deserved Marlins +2.0 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Marlins +8Through inning 7: deserved Marlins +2.0 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Marlins +9Through inning 8: deserved Marlins +2.4 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Marlins +10Through inning 9: deserved Marlins +1.9 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Marlins +9123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualMarlins sideAngels side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Angels
Marlins
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Angels
Lucky
Unlucky
Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Angels
Marlins
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Angelspitching
Grayson Rodriguez4.0 IP · 20 BF · 8 K · 4 BB
1.1 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.1 bases better than average on 45 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.9 expected bases.

Curveball4 thrown (5% tonight, season 11%) · 1 whiff
+0.4 bases cost
Shaun Anderson1.0 IP · 10 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
4.2 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 4 balls in play worth 6.4 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 10 pitches.

Sweeper4 thrown (13% tonight, season 13%)
−0.2 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (6% tonight, season 7%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Blake Weiman1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Slider4 thrown (24% tonight, season 32%) · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker3 thrown (18% tonight, season 12%)
0.0 bases
Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 5%)
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer1 thrown (6% tonight, season 6%)
−0.1 bases saved
Ryan Watson1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

About an average night — −0.9 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Tyler Heineman1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Fastball did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Marlinspitching
Ryan Gusto4.0 IP · 18 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases saved

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 5.3 expected bases. His Curveball did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Michael Petersen1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

About an average night — −0.7 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider4 thrown (27% tonight, season 27%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown (7% tonight, season 13%)
+0.1 bases cost
Sinker1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Tyler Zuber1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (28% tonight, season 40%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (11% tonight, season 10%)
−0.2 bases saved
Curveball1 thrown
+0.2 bases cost
Calvin Faucher1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

About an average night — −0.7 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (17% tonight, season 8%)
−0.4 bases saved
Curveball3 thrown (10% tonight, season 14%)
+0.3 bases cost
Victor Vodnik1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Slider7 thrown (54% tonight, season 30%) · 3 whiffs
−0.8 bases saved
Four-Seamer4 thrown (31% tonight, season 49%)
0.0 bases
Josh Ekness1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

About an average night — +0.2 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Sinker1 thrown (8% tonight, season 9%)
+0.1 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Angels
Lucky
Unlucky
Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Griffin Conine hit it

Every ball Griffin Conine hit this game, where it landed.

344'422'335'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +3.4 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP2 K115.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 9Deserved: 5.6
PA 1 vs Grayson Rodriguez: walkPA 2 vs Grayson Rodriguez: strikeoutPA 3 vs Shaun Anderson: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 4 vs Blake Weiman: strikeoutPA 5 vs Tyler Heineman: home run — 0.8 deserved bases
BB
K
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball43%

0.8 deserved bases on contact

Breaking43%

3.8 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed13%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Shaun Anderson
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.8
Grayson Rodriguez
BBK
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Tyler Heineman
Actual
4.0
Deserved
0.8
Blake Weiman
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on loanDepot park.

Angels24 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
344'422'335'
Marlins27 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
344'422'335'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. loanDepot park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information