Grayson Rodriguez
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Rodriguez is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.484 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 10th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (3rd percentile).
298 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Grayson Rodriguez.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Grayson Rodriguez | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .594 | .528 | 10th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 37th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 41st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Grayson Rodriguez leans on his four-seam fastball (54% of pitches). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 0.4 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 150 bases vs a replacement arm's 166 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
19.5 bases cost vs league average, across 1,207 pitches — 1.6 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Grayson Rodriguez's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup and Slider have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.509 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.490 to 0.528, based on 164 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.514 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.470 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.489, based on 135 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.523 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 10 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 5 more bases than their contact off Grayson Rodriguez earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 202 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 6.41 · WHIP 1.53 · BABIP against 0.318 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs AstrosAug 20, 2026
27 BF · 6 K, 2 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.1
- Above replacement
- +8.0
- vs TigersMay 28, 2026
19 BF · 5 K, 2 BB, 2 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 5.2
- Above replacement
- +5.4
- vs OriolesAug 4, 2026
26 BF · 6 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 9.2
- Above replacement
- +5.3
- vs MarlinsAug 9, 2026
20 BF · 8 K, 4 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.9
- Above replacement
- +3.2
- vs RoyalsAug 14, 2026
17 BF · 5 K, 2 BB, 3 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 7.1
- Above replacement
- +2.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Grayson Rodriguez
xEB/PA up, HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against down vs his previous season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.