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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 2, 2026
Giants
4
Final
Padres
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Giants 28% · tied 18% · Padres 54%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
4
5
Est. bases
9.4
9.9
Total bases
14
11
Home runs
2
1
Barrels
1
1
Walks/HBP
4
6
Strikeouts
9
9
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
1
2
Left on base
6
9
Errors
2
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Padres lead on deserved runs by 0.9.

Padres deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+0.9+1
Giants deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved even (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Padres +2.4 (80% band +1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +2.4 deserved runs · actual Padres +4Through inning 3: deserved Padres +2.2 (80% band +1.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Padres +4Through inning 4: deserved Padres +1.6 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.6 deserved runs · actual Padres +2Through inning 5: deserved Padres +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.7 deserved runs · actual Padres +2Through inning 6: deserved Padres +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Padres +2Through inning 7: deserved Padres +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Padres +2Through inning 8: deserved Padres +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual Padres +1Through inning 9: deserved Padres +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Padres +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualPadres sideGiants side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Giants
Padres
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Giants
Padres
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Giantspitching
Landen Roupp4.7 IP · 24 BF · 6 K · 4 BB
0.5 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.3 expected bases. His Curveball did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 29 pitches.

Cutter6 thrown (6% tonight, season 14%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sam Hentges1.3 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 9 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Curveball1 thrown (5% tonight, season 18%)
+0.1 bases cost
Dylan Smith1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Sweeper5 thrown (31% tonight, season 32%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (13% tonight, season 8%)
+0.2 bases cost
JT Brubaker0.7 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Sinker8 thrown (35% tonight, season 47%)
+0.3 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown (4% tonight, season 8%)
0.0 bases
Erik Miller0.3 IP · 2 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases cost

Faced only 2 batters. The Sinker got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases.

Sinker5 thrown (63% tonight, season 45%)
+0.6 bases cost
Padrespitching
Kyle Hart3.0 IP · 10 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
3.6 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 17 pitches. Overall 3.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Splitter4 thrown (9% tonight, season 20%)
+0.2 bases cost
Four-Seamer3 thrown (7% tonight, season 10%)
0.0 bases
JP Sears1.0 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.1 expected bases.

Sweeper3 thrown (11% tonight, season 14%)
+0.1 bases cost
Griffin Canning2.0 IP · 8 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 3.5 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Knuckle Curve4 thrown (11% tonight, season 7%) · 2 whiffs
−0.1 bases saved
Sweeper4 thrown (11% tonight, season 4%)
+0.1 bases cost
Sinker1 thrown (3% tonight, season 10%)
−0.1 bases saved
Jeremiah Estrada1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Slider4 thrown (40% tonight, season 10%)
0.0 bases
Splitter1 thrown (10% tonight, season 32%)
0.0 bases
Bradgley Rodriguez0.7 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.9 expected bases.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (30% tonight, season 24%)
−0.1 bases saved
Slider2 thrown (9% tonight, season 8%)
0.0 bases
Adrian Morejon1.3 IP · 5 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 13 pitches. 4 of his 6 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Changeup13 thrown (59% tonight, season 21%) · 4 whiffs
−1.0 bases saved
Sinker4 thrown (18% tonight, season 45%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Jackson Merrill hit it

Every ball Jackson Merrill hit this game, where it landed.

341'396'323'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

4 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP0 K105.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.9
PA 1 vs Landen Roupp: home run — 3.3 deserved basesPA 2 vs Landen Roupp: out — 0.2 deserved basesPA 3 vs Landen Roupp: walkPA 4 vs Dylan Smith: single — 1.4 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Offspeed58%

1.5 deserved bases on contact

Fastball25%

3.3 deserved bases on contact

Breaking17%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Landen Roupp
BB
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.5
Dylan Smith
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.4
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Petco Park.

Giants24 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
341'396'323'
Padres23 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
341'396'323'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Petco Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information