Erik Miller
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Miller sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.443 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 66th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (94th percentile). The soft spot is Command (3rd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
176 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Erik Miller.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Erik Miller | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .462 | .528 | 66th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 13% | 9% | 3rd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 28% | 22% | 93rd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Erik Miller leans on his sinker (47% of pitches). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 3.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 55% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 64 bases vs a replacement arm's 90 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
15.9 bases saved vs league average, across 740 pitches — 2.1 per 100.
His changeup isn't in the charts below — only 35 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Erik Miller's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider and Four-Seam Fastball have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His changeup isn't in these charts — only 35 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.374 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.352 to 0.395, based on 75 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.281 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.281) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.415 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.395 to 0.437, based on 101 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.467 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.467) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Erik Miller.
over 87 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.20 · WHIP 1.29 · BABIP against 0.306 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RockiesJul 5, 2026
4 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs PhilliesApr 8, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs NationalsApr 18, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs BrewersJul 27, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs OriolesApr 12, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Erik Miller
xEB/PA down, HR allowed% up, K% up, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against down, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.