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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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White Sox at Guardians · Oct 3, 2026

White Sox
3
Final
Guardians
0
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"White Sox 89% · tied 6% · Guardians 4%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
3
0
Est. bases
13.3
5.8
Total bases
10
5
Home runs
1
0
Barrels
3
0
Walks/HBP
4
5
Strikeouts
10
12
GIDP
2
1
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
4
7
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the White Sox lead on deserved runs by 2.9.

Guardians deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20-2.9-3
White Sox deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved White Sox +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved White Sox +0.2 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Guardians +0.1 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved White Sox +1.0 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual White Sox +2Through inning 5: deserved White Sox +1.2 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual White Sox +2Through inning 6: deserved White Sox +2.5 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning -1.3 deserved runs · actual White Sox +2Through inning 7: deserved White Sox +2.9 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual White Sox +3Through inning 8: deserved White Sox +2.9 (80% band -6.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual White Sox +3Through inning 9: deserved White Sox +2.9 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual White Sox +3123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualGuardians sideWhite Sox side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

White Sox
Guardians
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

White Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

White Sox
Guardians
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

White Soxpitching
Hagen Smith2.7 IP · 11 BF · 4 K · 3 BB
1.1 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 27 pitches. 3 of his 6 whiffs came on the Slider.

Cutter9 thrown (18% tonight, season 19%) · 1 whiff
+0.2 bases cost
Bryan Hudson0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Sweeper2 thrown (33% tonight, season 28%)
+0.3 bases cost
Jordan Hicks0.7 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer13 thrown (76% tonight, season 21%) · 4 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (12% tonight, season 46%)
0.0 bases
Sweeper2 thrown (12% tonight, season 30%)
+0.1 bases cost
Anthony Kay1.3 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases cost

About an average night — +0.1 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Cutter2 thrown (9% tonight, season 16%)
0.0 bases
Changeup1 thrown (5% tonight, season 14%)
+0.5 bases cost
Grant Taylor4.0 IP · 13 BF · 6 K · 0 BB
2.8 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.5 bases better than average on 19 pitches. The Slider got hit — 1 ball in play worth 2.0 expected bases.

Sinker1 thrown (2% tonight, season 12%)
+0.1 bases cost
Guardianspitching
Parker Messick4.3 IP · 18 BF · 6 K · 2 BB
1.2 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.9 expected bases. 9 of his 14 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Curveball3 thrown (3% tonight, season 8%) · 1 whiff
−0.6 bases saved
Daniel Espino0.7 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Curveball1 thrown (8% tonight, season 9%)
+0.1 bases cost
Erik Sabrowski1.7 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
3.2 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.9 expected bases. Overall 3.2 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider7 thrown (35% tonight, season 16%) · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Curveball1 thrown (5% tonight, season 19%)
+0.1 bases cost
Hunter Gaddis0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Four-Seamer1 thrown (25% tonight, season 30%)
−0.1 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (25% tonight, season 50%)
−0.1 bases saved
Tim Herrin1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Curveball did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Slider4 thrown (29% tonight, season 25%)
+0.3 bases cost
Cade Smith1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Splitter3 thrown (25% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Sweeper2 thrown (17% tonight, season 11%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

White Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Tommy Pham hit it

Every ball Tommy Pham hit this game, where it landed.

325'407'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −3.8 bases behind deserved.

3 PA0 H1 BB0 HBP1 K106.1 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 1Deserved: 4.8
PA 1 vs Parker Messick: strikeoutPA 2 vs Parker Messick: walkPA 3 vs Erik Sabrowski: out — 3.8 deserved bases
K
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Offspeed58%
Fastball42%

3.8 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Erik Sabrowski
Actual
0.0
Deserved
3.8
Parker Messick
KBB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Progressive Field.

White Sox20 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
325'407'325'
Guardians17 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
325'407'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Progressive Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information