Anthony Kay
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Kay is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.480 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 16th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Strikeouts (16th percentile).
565 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Anthony Kay.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Anthony Kay | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .528 | .528 | 16th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 65th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 19% | 22% | 16th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Anthony Kay mixes his four-seam fastball (22%) and sweeper (22%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 1.1 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 2.2 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 252 bases vs a replacement arm's 314 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
16.3 bases cost vs league average, across 2,246 pitches — 0.7 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Anthony Kay's pitch movement, 2026
3 of his 6 pitches have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.043 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.052
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.444 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.426 to 0.461, based on 155 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.351 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.351) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.486 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.469 to 0.502, based on 412 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.528 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.528) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 5 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 10 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 fewer bases than their contact off Anthony Kay earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 390 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.96 · WHIP 1.33 · BABIP against 0.289 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs GuardiansJun 22, 2026
24 BF · 8 K, 2 BB, 3 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 5.5
- Above replacement
- +7.8
- vs YankeesJul 28, 2026
23 BF · 7 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 5.8
- Above replacement
- +7.0
- vs RaysAug 2, 2026
27 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 7 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.1
- Above replacement
- +7.0
- vs MarinersMay 9, 2026
20 BF · 5 K, 2 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.1
- Above replacement
- +5.0
- vs MarinersMay 19, 2026
22 BF · 5 K, 3 BB, 1 H, 2 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 8.0
- Above replacement
- +4.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Anthony Kay
BB% down, K% up vs his previous season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.