Hagen Smith
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Smith is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.433 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 80th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (94th percentile). The soft spot is Command (5th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
110 batters faced · data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Hagen Smith.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (29.0%)
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| Hagen Smith | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .385 | .527 | 80th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 12% | 9% | 5th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 27% | 22% | 94th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Hagen Smith leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 3.2 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 35% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 39 bases vs a replacement arm's 57 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
13.9 bases saved vs league average, across 458 pitches — 3.0 per 100.
Rarely used: changeup (2%)
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Mix by batter side
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Hagen Smith's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 2 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.377 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.355 to 0.400, based on 39 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.366 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.415 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.393 to 0.436, based on 71 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.319 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.319) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 fewer bases than their contact off Hagen Smith earned — his results have run lucky so far.
over 65 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 1.29 · WHIP 0.96 · BABIP against 0.188 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs TwinsSep 6, 2026
9 BF · 4 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.9
- Above replacement
- +3.8
- vs GuardiansSep 14, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs MetsAug 23, 2026
6 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +2.7
- vs AstrosSep 29, 2026
11 BF · 1 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.3
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs CardinalsSep 12, 2026
6 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +2.5