Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Messick is among the league's best at preventing damage
The simulator expects 0.399 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 96th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (96th percentile).
591 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
▸How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. Percentiles vs. 464 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled.
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Parker Messick.
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
▸How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against). Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
Parker Messick
League median
Percentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better)
.447
.528
96th
Walk rate(lower = better)
7%
9%
83rd
Strikeout rate(higher = better)
25%
22%
81st
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
What he throws, and what it does
Parker Messick mixes his four-seam fastball (39%) and changeup (23%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 5.2 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
▲ +109 bases better than a replacement arm this season
allowed 220 bases vs a replacement arm's 329 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
Bases vs average
All pitches
48.7 bases saved vs league average, across 2,305 pitches — 2.1 per 100.
Lg avg
Four-Seam Fastball
39%
94.3 mph · LHP median 93.6
28% whiffs · Lg median 21%
saved 5.2 per 10047.1 total
Changeup
23%
85.9 mph · LHP median 85.0
35% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 1.8 per 1009.6 total
Sinker
16%
92.6 mph · LHP median 93.1
10% whiffs · Lg median 13%
saved 1.8 per 1006.9 total
Curveball
10%
79.2 mph · LHP median 79.9
11% whiffs · Lg median 29%
cost 2.9 per 1006.5 total
Cutter
6%
90.5 mph · LHP median 88.1
31% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 3.7 per 1004.8 total
Slider
6%
87.1 mph · LHP median 85.8
26% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 2.8 per 1003.6 total
▸How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.
Mix by batter side
Four-Seam Fastball
38% vs LHH · LHP median 33%
40% vs RHH · LHP median 40%
Changeup
9% vs LHH · LHP median 16%
29% vs RHH · LHP median 32%
Sinker
27% vs LHH · LHP median 38%
12% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
Curveball
7% vs LHH · LHP median 12%
11% vs RHH · LHP median 18%
Slider
16% vs LHH · LHP median 33%
2% vs RHH · LHP median 19%
▸How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — between 23 and 127 of them, depending on the pitch. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.
Parker Messick's pitch movement, 2026
His Cutter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 5 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
Pitch
Risein · vs Lg median
Breakin · vs Lg median
Vs. early season
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 16.6 in
+0.9 vs Lg median
Break 5.3 in
−2.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
ChangeupCH
Rise 2.2 in
−1.8 vs Lg median
Break 14.6 in
+0.5 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SinkerSI
Rise 9.9 in
+1.6 vs Lg median
Break 13.1 in
−2.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CurveballCU
Rise −6.1 in
+4.0 vs Lg median
Break −14.0 in
−5.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CutterFC
Rise 7.7 in
+0.2 vs Lg median
Break −3.9 in
−1.8 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
SliderSL
Rise 4.4 in
+2.6 vs Lg median
Break −5.4 in
−1.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
▸How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.
By appearance
How the stuff has held up outing to outing
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
How he fares against lefties and righties
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047
vs LHB161 PA0.385
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.385 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.367 to 0.402, based on 161 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.343 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Lg median
Raw vs LHB rate (0.343) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB431 PA0.423
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.423 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.406 to 0.439, based on 431 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.381 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Lg median
0.3570.3840.4110.4380.464
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
▸How to read this chart
Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
“Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
What hitters do when they connect
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Where every ball hit off Parker Messick landed this season.
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.
Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 10 more bases than their contact off Parker Messick earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
Earned off his contact allowed178
Actually credited to batters187
over 397 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
▸How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.
ERA 2.54 · WHIP 1.03 · BABIP against 0.259 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
What happens the third time they see him
Best games
His biggest outings this year
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.