MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 1, 2026
D-backs
12
Final
Guardians
8
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"D-backs 54% · tied 11% · Guardians 35%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
12
8
Est. bases
24.1
24.1
Total bases
28
23
Home runs
3
2
Barrels
4
3
Walks/HBP
6
3
Strikeouts
8
10
GIDP
0
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
10
9
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the D-backs lead on deserved runs by 0.8.

Guardians deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2+4-0.8-4
D-backs deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Guardians +1.4 (80% band +1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +1.4 deserved runs · actual Guardians +2Through inning 2: deserved Guardians +2.2 (80% band +1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Guardians +2Through inning 3: deserved Guardians +2.9 (80% band +1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Guardians +2Through inning 4: deserved Guardians +2.4 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Guardians +2Through inning 5: deserved Guardians +2.0 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Guardians +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -1.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 7: deserved D-backs +3.1 (80% band -7.0 to 0.0) · this inning -3.9 deserved runs · actual D-backs +7Through inning 8: deserved D-backs +0.4 (80% band -5.0 to +4.0) · this inning +2.7 deserved runs · actual D-backs +3Through inning 9: deserved D-backs +0.8 (80% band -5.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.4 deserved runs · actual D-backs +4123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualGuardians sideD-backs side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

D-backs
Guardians
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

D-backs
Guardians
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

D-backspitching
Kohl Drake4.0 IP · 19 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
2.2 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 8 balls in play worth 7.9 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 20 pitches.

Curveball12 thrown (13% tonight, season 21%) · 1 whiff
+0.6 bases cost
Gerardo Carrillo2.0 IP · 7 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
2.6 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 9 pitches. Overall 2.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (6% tonight, season 10%)
+0.1 bases cost
Sweeper1 thrown (3% tonight, season 5%)
−0.5 bases saved
Juan Morillo1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup4 thrown (25% tonight, season 21%)
+0.4 bases cost
Slider1 thrown (6% tonight, season 16%)
−0.1 bases saved
Paul Sewald0.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
5.9 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 6.5 expected bases. Overall 5.9 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Kevin Ginkel1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
even

About an average night — −0.0 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Jonathan Loáisiga1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.9 expected bases.

Cutter3 thrown (17% tonight, season 5%)
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer3 thrown (17% tonight, season 15%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Guardianspitching
Parker Messick4.3 IP · 20 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
3.8 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.9 bases better than average on 24 pitches. 5 of his 10 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Curveball5 thrown (5% tonight, season 11%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Cutter2 thrown (2% tonight, season 7%)
+0.1 bases cost
Colin Holderman1.7 IP · 8 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases cost

5 of his 6 whiffs came on the Sweeper.

Four-Seamer1 thrown (4% tonight, season 5%)
+0.1 bases cost
Hunter Gaddis0.7 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
4.5 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 1 ball in play worth 0.1 expected bases. Overall 4.5 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Franco Aleman0.3 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
3.8 bases cost

Overall 3.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Changeup2 thrown (13% tonight, season 8%)
+0.1 bases cost
Will Dion1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
2.3 bases cost

Overall 2.3 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Curveball1 thrown (13% tonight, season 23%)
+0.1 bases cost
Tim Herrin1.0 IP · 7 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases cost

About an average night — +0.4 bases vs average on 7 batters.

Sinker5 thrown (16% tonight, season 24%) · 2 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Corbin Carroll hit it

Every ball Corbin Carroll hit this game, where it landed.

332'404'332'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

6 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP1 K101.6 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 6.1
PA 1 vs Parker Messick: walkPA 2 vs Parker Messick: strikeoutPA 3 vs Parker Messick: single — 0.6 deserved basesPA 4 vs Colin Holderman: out — 1.2 deserved basesPA 5 vs Franco Aleman: home run — 3.2 deserved basesPA 6 vs Tim Herrin: out — 0.0 deserved bases
BB
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball68%
Breaking25%

5.1 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed7%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Franco Aleman
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.2
Parker Messick
BBK
Actual
2.0
Deserved
1.6
Colin Holderman
Actual
0.0
Deserved
1.2
Tim Herrin
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Progressive Field.

D-backs35 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
332'404'332'
Guardians31 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
332'404'332'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Progressive Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information