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Kohl Drake

2026
D-backs· LHP · throws L· 20.2 IP· 6.53 ERA· 1.50 WHIP· 95 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 7% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Drake is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.486 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 7th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (4th percentile).

95 batters faced · data through 2026-09-04.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 485 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Luis GarcíaTwinsRyne NelsonD-backsMike BurrowsAstrosJeffrey SpringsAthletics

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.7%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (30.5%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against). Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Kohl DrakeLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).649.5277th
Walk rate(lower = better)9%9%60th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)20%22%27th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Kohl Drake mixes his four-seam fastball (43%) and changeup (19%). His changeup has performed closest to league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−1 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 52 bases vs a replacement arm's 51 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

8.4 bases cost vs league average, across 303 pitches — 2.8 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
43%
91.6 mph · LHP median 93.6
14% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 1.3 per 1002.1 total
Changeup
19%
81.6 mph · LHP median 85.1
36% whiffs · Lg median 30%
eveneven
Curveball
17%
78.5 mph · LHP median 79.6
—
cost 9.7 per 1006.3 total
Cutter
not charted
12%
86.2 mph · LHP median 87.9
—
—
Slider
not charted
9%
81.7 mph · LHP median 86.0
—
—

His cutter and slider aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
38% vs LHH · LHP median 34%
47% vs RHH · LHP median 40%
Curveball
21% vs LHH · LHP median 12%
15% vs RHH · LHP median 18%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — between 36 and 139 of them, depending on the pitch. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His cutter and slider aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.048

vs LHB33 PA0.450

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.450 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.428 to 0.473, based on 33 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.668 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.668) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB62 PA0.488

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.488 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.466 to 0.511, based on 62 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.523 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.523) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4180.4430.4690.4950.520
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Kohl Drake landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Christian KossHome run
EV 99 mph · LA 31° · EB 3.7
08/28 vs Giants
vs Rhys HoskinsHome run
EV 105 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.5
08/01 vs Guardians
vs Bryce EldridgeHome run
EV 108 mph · LA 22° · EB 2.9
08/28 vs Giants
vs CJ AbramsHome run
EV 102 mph · LA 29° · EB 2.7
07/26 vs Nationals
vs Gavin SheetsOutRobbed
EV 105 mph · LA 24° · EB 2.3
08/06 vs Padres

Luck check

Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.

vs Gavin SheetsOutRobbed
EV 105 mph · LA 24° · EB 2.3
08/06 vs Padres

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Brady HouseDoubleCheap hit
EV 96 mph · LA 24° · EB 0.4 · xBA .171
07/26 vs Nationals
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Kohl Drake.

Earned off his contact allowed44
Actually credited to batters48

over 67 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 6.53 · WHIP 1.50 · BABIP against 0.306 (Lg median 0.288)

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.