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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Kohl Drake

2026
D-backs· LHP · throws L· 20.2 IP· 6.53 ERA· 1.50 WHIP· 95 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 10% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Drake allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.484 bases per batter faced, better than 10% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting home runs (4th percentile).

His grade rests on 95 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Trevor MartinAngelsMike BurrowsAstrosJoel KuhnelGiantsJack KochanowiczAngels

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Hit hard, few strikeouts” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Kohl DrakeLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).649.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)9%9%60th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)20%22%27th

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Kohl Drake mixes his four-seam fastball (43%) and changeup (19%). His changeup has performed closest to league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+4 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 52 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 56 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 8.4 bases against league average across 303 pitches, or 2.8 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
43%
91.6 mph · LHP median 93.5
14% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 1.3 per 1002.1 total
Changeup
19%
81.6 mph · LHP median 85.1
36% whiffs · Lg median 30%
eveneven
Curveball
17%
78.5 mph · LHP median 79.9
—
cost 9.7 per 1006.3 total
Cutter
not charted
12%
86.2 mph · LHP median 88.0
—
—
Slider
not charted
9%
81.7 mph · LHP median 85.6
—
—

His cutter and slider aren't in the charts below, because too few of each were tracked this season.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
38% vs LHH · LHP median 34%
47% vs RHH · LHP median 41%
Curveball
21% vs LHH · LHP median 12%
15% vs RHH · LHP median 17%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (LHP median). Medians come from left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 42 and 149 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His cutter and slider aren't in these charts, because too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.037 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.046

vs LHB33 PA0.449

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.449 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.427 to 0.472, based on 33 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.668 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHB (0.668) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHB62 PA0.486

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.486 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.464 to 0.508, based on 62 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.523 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.523) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4170.4420.4670.4930.518
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Kohl Drake this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Christian KossHome run
99 mph · 31° · worth 3.7 bases
08/28 vs Giants
vs Rhys HoskinsHome run
105 mph · 33° · worth 3.5 bases
08/01 vs Guardians
vs Bryce EldridgeHome run
108 mph · 22° · worth 2.9 bases
08/28 vs Giants
vs CJ AbramsHome run
102 mph · 29° · worth 2.7 bases
07/26 vs Nationals
vs Gavin SheetsOutLucky out
105 mph · 24° · worth 2.3 bases
08/06 vs Padres

Luck check

2 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Gavin SheetsOutLucky out
105 mph · 24° · worth 2.3 bases
08/06 vs Padres
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off Kohl Drake deserved.

Deserved by the contact he allowed44
Actually credited to batters48

Both bars count 67 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 6.53 · WHIP 1.50 · BABIP against 0.306 (Lg median 0.286)

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.