Gerardo Carrillo
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Carrillo has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.464 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 33rd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (98th percentile). The soft spot is Command (1st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
76 batters faced · data through 2026-09-04.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Gerardo Carrillo mixes his cutter (29%) and splitter (26%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 3.0 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his cutter runs 2.7 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 29 bases vs a replacement arm's 39 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
1.2 bases saved vs league average, across 228 pitches — 0.5 per 100.
His sweeper and four-seam fastball aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
Rarely used: curveball (1%)
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Mix by batter side
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Gerardo Carrillo's pitch movement, 2026
His Cutter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sweeper and four-seam fastball aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.547 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.524 to 0.568, based on 53 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.472 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.505 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.483 to 0.528, based on 23 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.313 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.313) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes up the middle.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs GuardiansAug 1, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +3.1
- vs RockiesAug 12, 2026
9 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.3
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs PiratesJul 28, 2026
6 BF · 3 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs PadresAug 4, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs DodgersAug 8, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 2 BB
- Bases allowed
- 3.0
- Above replacement
- +0.6