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Gerardo Carrillo

2026
D-backs· RHP · throws R· 17.1 IP· 4.15 ERA· 1.73 WHIP· 81 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 21% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Carrillo allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.472 bases per batter faced, better than 21% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting home runs (98th percentile). His weakest skill is limiting walks (1st percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 81 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Khristian CurtisPiratesJosh EknessMarlinsRiley O'BrienCardinalsNate PearsonRoyals

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Limits hard contact, pitches to contact” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Gerardo CarrilloLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).466.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)14%9%1st
Strikeout rate(higher = better)23%22%63rd

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Gerardo Carrillo mixes his cutter (29%) and splitter (25%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 2.6 bases per 100 thrown against league average, and his cutter runs 2.8 mph faster than the median right-handed pitcher's.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+11 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 31 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 42 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 1.2 bases against league average across 240 pitches, or 0.5 per 100 pitches.

Cutter
29%
92.9 mph · RHP median 90.1
12% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 3.0 per 1002.7 total
Splitter
25%
84.3 mph · RHP median 86.9
53% whiffs · Lg median 34%
cost 0.4 per 1000.3 total
Sinker
22%
96.9 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
saved 2.6 per 1001.8 total
Sweeper
not charted
12%
86.7 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—
Four-Seam Fastball
not charted
11%
96.9 mph · RHP median 95.1
—
—

His sweeper and four-seam fastball aren't in the charts below, because too few of each were tracked this season.

He rarely throws his curveball (1% of his pitches).

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Cutter
25% vs LHH · RHP median 20%
38% vs RHH · RHP median 19%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from the 156 right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Gerardo Carrillo's pitch movement, 2026

His Cutter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

Gerardo Carrillo's pitch movement, 202606120612in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
CutterFC
Rise 9.1 in
+1.4 vs Lg median
Break 0.1 in
+2.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
SplitterFS
Rise 3.8 in
+1.4 vs Lg median
Break 7.1 in
−3.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SinkerSI
Rise 5.3 in
−3.0 vs Lg median
Break 17.0 in
+1.8 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His sweeper and four-seam fastball aren't in these charts, because too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.042 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

vs LHB56 PA0.547

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.547 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.525 to 0.567, based on 56 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.497 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB25 PA0.505

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.505 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.483 to 0.525, based on 25 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.350 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.350) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4190.4600.5010.5420.583
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but they do the most damage up the middle.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Gerardo Carrillo this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Héctor RodríguezDouble
90 mph · 26° · worth 2.0 bases
08/23 vs Reds
vs Carter JensenDouble
107 mph · 14° · worth 1.8 bases
09/07 vs Royals
vs Keibert RuizDouble
83 mph · 23° · worth 1.7 bases
07/25 vs Nationals
vs Rafael DeversSingle
110 mph · 13° · worth 1.6 bases
08/29 vs Giants
vs Bryce EldridgeSingle
105 mph · 12° · worth 1.4 bases
08/29 vs Giants

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.