Nate Pearson
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Pearson sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.451 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 56th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (97th percentile). The soft spot is Command (24th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
158 batters faced · data through 2026-09-08.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Nate Pearson.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.6%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (30.7%)
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| Nate Pearson | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .375 | .528 | 56th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 24th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 42nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Nate Pearson mixes his four-seam fastball (42%) and slider (30%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 6.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 2.5 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 55 bases vs a replacement arm's 82 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
10.1 bases saved vs league average, across 596 pitches — 1.7 per 100.
Rarely used: changeup (3%)
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 16 points more toward lefties.
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Nate Pearson's pitch movement, 2026
His Curveball has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 3 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.475 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.454 to 0.495, based on 94 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.369 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.369) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.434 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.413 to 0.454, based on 65 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.386 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.437 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.386) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.042). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 fewer bases than their contact off Nate Pearson earned — his results have run lucky so far.
over 101 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.08 · WHIP 1.10 · BABIP against 0.230 (Lg median 0.288)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs AthleticsJun 7, 2026score only
7 BF · 2 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.2
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs D-backsSep 7, 2026
6 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.9
- Above replacement
- +2.2
- vs MarlinsSep 3, 2026
4 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs TigersJun 26, 2026
10 BF · 1 K, 2 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.7
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs RoyalsJun 14, 2026score only
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +1.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Nate Pearson
xEB/PA down, HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% up, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against up, FB% against down, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.