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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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D-backs at Royals · Sep 7, 2026

D-backs
5
Final
Royals
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"D-backs 27% · tied 17% · Royals 55%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
4
Est. bases
9.7
10.8
Total bases
10
11
Home runs
0
0
Barrels
0
2
Walks/HBP
3
5
Strikeouts
12
8
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
0
1
Left on base
7
9
Errors
1
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Royals lead on deserved runs by 0.8.

Royals deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+0.8-1
D-backs deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Royals +0.0 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Royals +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Royals +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Royals +0.2 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 5: deserved Royals +0.8 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Royals +1.1 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 7: deserved Royals +1.1 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Royals +0.9 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 9: deserved Royals +0.9 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Royals +0.8 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual D-backs +112345678910

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRoyals sideD-backs side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

D-backs
Royals
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Royals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

D-backs
Royals
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

D-backspitching
Derek Law2.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

About an average night — −1.0 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Four-Seamer1 thrown (5% tonight, season 14%)
+0.1 bases cost
Jose Cabrera3.0 IP · 14 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.9 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 15 pitches. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Cutter.

Taylor Clarke2.0 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 7 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 2.0 expected bases.

Slider7 thrown (25% tonight, season 30%) · 2 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Brandyn Garcia1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

About an average night — −1.3 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Cutter5 thrown (33% tonight, season 21%)
−0.3 bases saved
Justin Martinez1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases saved

About an average night — −0.6 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Splitter2 thrown (10% tonight, season 26%)
+0.5 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (10% tonight, season 4%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Gerardo Carrillo0.3 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
2.1 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. Overall 2.1 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Cutter5 thrown (28% tonight, season 29%)
+0.6 bases cost
Four-Seamer3 thrown (17% tonight, season 10%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Sinker3 thrown (17% tonight, season 22%)
+0.2 bases cost
Dennis Santana0.7 IP · 2 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters.

Cutter4 thrown (36% tonight, season 8%)
0.0 bases
Slider3 thrown (27% tonight, season 37%)
−0.7 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (18% tonight, season 12%)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (9% tonight, season 14%)
+0.1 bases cost
Royalspitching
Noah Cameron6.0 IP · 22 BF · 7 K · 2 BB
4.4 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 3.4 bases better than average on 28 pitches. 4 of his 12 whiffs came on the Slider.

Sinker3 thrown (3% tonight, season 5%)
+0.2 bases cost
Nate Pearson2.0 IP · 6 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.8 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 7 pitches. Overall 1.8 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Curveball2 thrown (10% tonight, season 13%)
+0.1 bases cost
Steven Cruz1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

About an average night — −0.6 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider1 thrown (6% tonight, season 14%)
+0.2 bases cost
Craig Kimbrel1.0 IP · 9 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases cost

About an average night — +0.5 bases vs average on 9 batters.

Knuckle Curve2 thrown (8% tonight, season 10%)
0.0 bases
Changeup1 thrown (4% tonight, season 3%)
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Royals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Vinnie Pasquantino hit it

Every ball Vinnie Pasquantino hit this game, where it landed.

330'418'330'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.5 bases behind deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP1 K98.3 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 3Deserved: 3.5
PA 1 vs Derek Law: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 2 vs Jose Cabrera: walkPA 3 vs Taylor Clarke: single — 2.0 deserved basesPA 4 vs Brandyn Garcia: single — 0.5 deserved basesPA 5 vs Gerardo Carrillo: strikeout
BB
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball48%

0.5 deserved bases on contact

Breaking28%
Offspeed24%

2.0 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Taylor Clarke
Actual
1.0
Deserved
2.0
Jose Cabrera
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Brandyn Garcia
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.5
Derek Law
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
Gerardo Carrillo
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Kauffman Stadium.

D-backs26 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
330'418'330'
Royals29 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
330'418'330'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Kauffman Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information