Justin Martinez
2026Grade
A profile still coming into focus
Not enough modeled data yet to judge his run prevention with confidence.
55 batters faced · data through 2026-09-27.
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Pitcher type
Arsenal
Justin Martinez mixes his four-seam fastball (37%) and sinker (35%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 4.2 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 32% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 13 bases vs a replacement arm's 29 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
8.5 bases saved vs league average, across 222 pitches — 3.8 per 100.
His slider isn't in the charts below — only 10 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 20 points more toward lefties.
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Justin Martinez's pitch movement, 2026
His Splitter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His slider isn't in these charts — only 10 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.425 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.403 to 0.448, based on 27 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.296 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.296) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.384 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.360 to 0.405, based on 28 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.308 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.308) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RangersSep 11, 2026
3 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs PadresSep 26, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs MarlinsSep 15, 2026
3 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs AstrosSep 4, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs YankeesSep 20, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Justin Martinez
HR allowed% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.