Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 5, 2026
Mets
6
Final
Guardians
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Mets 67% · tied 12% · Guardians 21%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
6
5
Est. bases
21.4
13.8
Total bases
22
12
Home runs
3
0
Barrels
4
1
Walks/HBP
2
6
Strikeouts
16
13
GIDP
0
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
6
15
Errors
2
3

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Mets lead on deserved runs by 1.6.

Guardians deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2-1.6-1
Mets deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Guardians +0.6 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Guardians +0.5 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Mets +1.5 (80% band -3.0 to 0.0) · this inning -2.0 deserved runs · actual Mets +2Through inning 4: deserved Mets +1.1 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Mets +2Through inning 5: deserved Mets +0.2 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Mets +0.3 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Mets +1Through inning 7: deserved Mets +0.1 (80% band -3.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Guardians +1Through inning 8: deserved Mets +1.1 (80% band -4.0 to +2.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual Guardians +1Through inning 9: deserved Mets +1.4 (80% band -5.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Mets +1.6 (80% band -5.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Mets +112345678910

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualGuardians sideMets side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Mets
Guardians
Angel Genao
3.3
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Mets
Dedniel Núñez 7 BF
3.0
Jefry Yan 6 BF
1.8
Guardians
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Metspitching
Christian Scott5.0 IP · 24 BF · 7 K · 2 BB
1.1 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.3 expected bases. His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Splitter4 thrown (4% tonight, season 4%)
0.0 bases
Sinker1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Jefry Yan1.0 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.9 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Dedniel Núñez1.0 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 7 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.5 expected bases.

Chayce McDermott2.0 IP · 8 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
2.0 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 18 pitches. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Cutter.

Splitter4 thrown
+0.3 bases cost
Daniel Duarte1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sweeper5 thrown (36% tonight, season 26%)
+0.4 bases cost
Changeup2 thrown (14% tonight, season 12%)
0.0 bases
Guardianspitching
Tanner Bibee5.7 IP · 22 BF · 10 K · 0 BB
4.1 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.8 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 16 pitches.

Sinker19 thrown (19% tonight, season 23%) · 1 whiff
−1.0 bases saved
Erik Sabrowski0.3 IP · 2 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters.

Curveball1 thrown (20% tonight, season 20%)
−0.1 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (20% tonight, season 12%)
−0.1 bases saved
Craig Yoho1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. The Changeup got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.3 expected bases.

Cutter2 thrown (18% tonight, season 10%)
0.0 bases
Hunter Gaddis1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.5 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Changeup2 thrown (15% tonight, season 21%)
+0.1 bases cost
Cade Smith1.0 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
0.7 bases saved

7 of his 9 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Splitter5 thrown (17% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Matt Festa1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.5 expected bases.

Sweeper3 thrown (21% tonight, season 40%) · 1 whiff
−0.6 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (7% tonight, season 6%)
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Jared Young hit it

Every ball Jared Young hit this game, where it landed.

332'404'332'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP1 K107.1 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 6.1
PA 1 vs Tanner Bibee: out — 2.6 deserved basesPA 2 vs Tanner Bibee: double — 1.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Erik Sabrowski: triple — 0.5 deserved basesPA 4 vs Cade Smith: walkPA 5 vs Matt Festa: strikeout
BB
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball79%

3.2 deserved bases on contact

Breaking17%

1.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed4%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Tanner Bibee
Actual
2.0
Deserved
4.6
Cade Smith
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Erik Sabrowski
Actual
3.0
Deserved
0.5
Matt Festa
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Progressive Field.

Mets23 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
332'404'332'
Guardians30 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
332'404'332'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Progressive Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information