Daniel Duarte
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Duarte is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.430 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 82nd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (98th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
97 batters faced · data through 2026-09-04.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.7%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (30.5%)
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| Daniel Duarte | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .410 | .527 | 82nd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 72nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 57th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Daniel Duarte mixes his cutter (33%) and sweeper (27%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 6.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 34 bases vs a replacement arm's 50 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
10.8 bases saved vs league average, across 366 pitches — 3.0 per 100.
His changeup isn't in the charts below — only 45 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Daniel Duarte's pitch movement, 2026
His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His changeup isn't in these charts — only 45 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.422 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.402 to 0.445, based on 60 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.449 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.380 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.359 to 0.402, based on 38 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.166 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.166) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Daniel Duarte.
over 64 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.08 · WHIP 0.77 · BABIP against 0.194 (Lg median 0.288)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs BravesJul 27, 2026
6 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +2.8
- vs NationalsMay 19, 2026score only
7 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +2.2
- vs BravesAug 10, 2026
7 BF · 0 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 2.0
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs PadresAug 17, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs RaysSep 2, 2026
4 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Daniel Duarte
xEB/PA down, HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% up vs his previous season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.