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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Cardinals at Rockies · Sep 6, 2026

Cardinals
10
Final
Rockies
8
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Cardinals 67% · tied 13% · Rockies 20%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
10
8
Est. bases
19.3
15.6
Total bases
21
17
Home runs
1
2
Barrels
3
2
Walks/HBP
3
1
Strikeouts
8
16
GIDP
0
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
6
3
Errors
1
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Cardinals lead on deserved runs by 1.7.

Rockies deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2+4-1.7-2
Cardinals deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Cardinals +0.3 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Rockies +2Through inning 2: deserved Cardinals +0.5 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Rockies +1Through inning 3: deserved Rockies +0.6 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +1.1 deserved runs · actual Rockies +4Through inning 4: deserved Rockies +0.5 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Rockies +4Through inning 5: deserved Cardinals +2.6 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning -3.0 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +2Through inning 6: deserved Cardinals +2.4 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +2Through inning 7: deserved Cardinals +2.5 (80% band -6.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +2Through inning 8: deserved Cardinals +2.0 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +4Through inning 9: deserved Cardinals +1.7 (80% band -5.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +2123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRockies sideCardinals side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Cardinals
Rockies
Vimael Machín
0
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Cardinals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Rockies
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Cardinals
Cooper Hjerpe 12 BF
2.6
Rockies
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Cardinalspitching
Kyle Leahy2.7 IP · 14 BF · 6 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.1 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 12 pitches.

Four-Seamer12 thrown (22% tonight, season 26%) · 1 whiff
−0.7 bases saved
Cade Winquest0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Cutter6 thrown (75% tonight, season 34%)
0.0 bases
Curveball1 thrown (13% tonight, season 33%)
−0.1 bases saved
Cooper Hjerpe4.0 IP · 12 BF · 6 K · 0 BB
2.8 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 15 pitches. 3 of his 8 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Luis Gastelum1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
2.2 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.9 expected bases. Overall 2.2 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Ryne Stanek0.7 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases saved

About an average night — −0.1 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider3 thrown (20% tonight, season 23%) · 1 whiff
+0.2 bases cost
Sinker1 thrown (7% tonight, season 10%)
+0.1 bases cost
George Soriano0.3 IP · 2 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (38% tonight, season 30%)
−0.1 bases saved
Changeup3 thrown (23% tonight, season 30%)
−0.1 bases saved
Rockiespitching
Tanner Gordon4.7 IP · 23 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
1.9 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 9 balls in play worth 6.7 expected bases. His Curveball did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 17 pitches.

Jimmy Herget0.3 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.9 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. Overall 2.9 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider5 thrown (45% tonight, season 31%) · 3 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Sweeper4 thrown (36% tonight, season 29%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Mark Manfredi1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 12 pitches.

Changeup1 thrown (7% tonight, season 5%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider1 thrown (7% tonight, season 25%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sweeper1 thrown (7% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Juan Mejia1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

About an average night — −0.3 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sweeper13 thrown (57% tonight, season 36%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer10 thrown (43% tonight, season 54%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Nick Frasso0.7 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases cost

About an average night — +0.2 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Slider1 thrown (4% tonight, season 7%)
0.0 bases
Blas Castaño1.3 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases saved

About an average night — −0.6 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sinker9 thrown (43% tonight, season 41%)
0.0 bases
Cutter2 thrown (10% tonight, season 15%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Cardinals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Rockies
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Alec Burleson hit it

Every ball Alec Burleson hit this game, where it landed.

347'418'350'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.9 bases behind deserved.

5 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP0 K108.3 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 4Deserved: 4.9
PA 1 vs Tanner Gordon: single — 1.2 deserved basesPA 2 vs Tanner Gordon: out — 1.6 deserved basesPA 3 vs Tanner Gordon: double — 1.8 deserved basesPA 4 vs Mark Manfredi: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 5 vs Nick Frasso: single — 0.4 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball55%

3.7 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed27%

1.2 deserved bases on contact

Breaking18%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Tanner Gordon
Actual
3.0
Deserved
4.6
Nick Frasso
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.4
Mark Manfredi
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Coors Field.

Cardinals32 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
347'418'350'
Rockies21 BIP · 1 BB/HBP
347'418'350'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Coors Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information