Luis Gastelum
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Gastelum sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.451 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 54th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (93rd percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (3rd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
89 batters faced · data through 2026-08-24.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Luis Gastelum | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .658 | .528 | 54th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 65th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 24% | 22% | 74th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Luis Gastelum mixes his changeup (39%) and four-seam fastball (32%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 0.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 51% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 45 bases vs a replacement arm's 45 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
6.5 bases cost vs league average, across 310 pitches — 2.1 per 100.
His sinker isn't in the charts below — only 30 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Luis Gastelum's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sinker isn't in these charts — only 30 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.438 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.416 to 0.461, based on 44 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.536 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.453 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.536) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.399 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.377 to 0.421, based on 45 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.465 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.439 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes up the middle.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 more bases than their contact off Luis Gastelum earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 57 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.40 · WHIP 1.20 · BABIP against 0.288 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs CubsAug 16, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs PhilliesAug 10, 2026
4 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs D-backsJul 19, 2026
5 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs RedsAug 19, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs RedsAug 17, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.1