Juan Mejia
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Mejia has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.464 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 34th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (74th percentile). The soft spot is Command (10th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
247 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Juan Mejia.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Juan Mejia | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .491 | .528 | 34th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 12% | 9% | 10th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 45th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Juan Mejia leans on his four-seam fastball (53% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 4.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 2.0 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 110 bases vs a replacement arm's 127 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
1.0 bases saved vs league average, across 960 pitches — 0.1 per 100.
Rarely used: changeup, slider (5%)
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Mix by batter side
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Juan Mejia's pitch movement, 2026
His Sinker has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 2 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.487 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.467 to 0.506, based on 125 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.544 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.544) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.446 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.427 to 0.465, based on 122 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.364 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.364) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Juan Mejia.
over 162 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.63 · WHIP 1.62 · BABIP against 0.331 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MetsMay 4, 2026
6 BF · 5 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs MetsApr 26, 2026
5 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs GuardiansAug 22, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +2.2
- vs PadresApr 23, 2026
9 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.6
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs AstrosApr 6, 2026
6 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +1.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Juan Mejia
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down, GB% against up, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.