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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 5, 2026
Blue Jays
5
Final
Astros
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Blue Jays 22% · tied 16% · Astros 62%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
4
Est. bases
14.3
18.2
Total bases
12
15
Home runs
2
1
Barrels
2
2
Walks/HBP
3
2
Strikeouts
13
9
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
0
1
Left on base
4
7
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Astros lead on deserved runs by 1.2.

Astros deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+6+1.2-1
Blue Jays deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Astros +0.3 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Astros +0.9 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Astros +4.1 (80% band +2.0 to +6.0) · this inning +3.2 deserved runs · actual Astros +3Through inning 4: deserved Astros +3.9 (80% band +2.0 to +6.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Astros +3Through inning 5: deserved Astros +3.6 (80% band +2.0 to +6.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Astros +3Through inning 6: deserved Astros +2.4 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning -1.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 7: deserved Astros +1.4 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Astros +1.9 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 9: deserved Astros +1.8 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Astros +1.2 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.6 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +112345678910

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualAstros sideBlue Jays side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Astros
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Astros
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Blue Jayspitching
Jameson Taillon4.0 IP · 20 BF · 4 K · 2 BB
4.2 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.9 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 20 pitches.

Spencer Miles2.0 IP · 8 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 19 pitches. The Slider got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.2 expected bases.

Curveball6 thrown (15% tonight, season 26%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (5% tonight, season 16%)
0.0 bases
Mason Fluharty1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Cutter4 thrown (36% tonight, season 48%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Tyler Rogers1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases saved

About an average night — −0.2 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider2 thrown (20% tonight, season 23%)
+0.1 bases cost
Louis Varland1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (41% tonight, season 41%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Chase Lee1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Astrospitching
Hunter Brown6.0 IP · 23 BF · 8 K · 2 BB
0.3 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.6 bases better than average on 36 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 4.0 expected bases.

Steven Okert1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.8 expected bases.

Slider15 thrown (68% tonight, season 68%) · 3 whiffs
0.0 bases
Sinker1 thrown (5% tonight, season 5%)
+0.1 bases cost
Bryan Abreu1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Slider4 thrown (33% tonight, season 47%) · 1 whiff
−0.9 bases saved
Josh Hader1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker6 thrown (60% tonight, season 63%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Bennett Sousa1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.0 bases cost

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 9 pitches. Overall 2.0 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sinker1 thrown (8% tonight, season 4%)
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Jose Altuve hit it

Every ball Jose Altuve hit this game, where it landed.

320'432'332'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

5 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K107.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 5.1
PA 1 vs Jameson Taillon: single — 0.4 deserved basesPA 2 vs Jameson Taillon: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Spencer Miles: out — 0.2 deserved basesPA 4 vs Mason Fluharty: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 5 vs Chase Lee: out — 0.5 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking56%

1.2 deserved bases on contact

Fastball44%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Jameson Taillon
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.3
Chase Lee
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.5
Spencer Miles
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.2
Mason Fluharty
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Daikin Park.

Blue Jays22 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
320'432'332'
Astros29 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
320'432'332'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Daikin Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information