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Chase Lee

2026
Blue Jays· RHP · throws R· 9.2 IP· 6.52 ERA· 1.66 WHIP· 42 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Reliever

His grade is not ready yet

The simulator does not have enough data yet to grade how well he limits bases.

His grade rests on 42 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Chase Lee mixes his sinker (36%) and sweeper (36%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 2.9 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+2 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 20 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 22 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 1.3 bases against league average across 106 pitches, or 1.2 per 100 pitches.

Sinker
36%
89.7 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
saved 2.9 per 1001.6 total
Sweeper
36%
80.7 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
cost 5.4 per 1002.9 total
Four-Seam Fastball
not charted
18%
90.1 mph · RHP median 95.1
—
—
Changeup
not charted
10%
85.0 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—

His four-seam fastball and changeup aren't in the charts below, because too few of each were tracked this season.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Chase Lee's pitch movement, 2026

Chase Lee's pitch movement, 2026-12012-12012in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
SinkerSI
Rise −2.1 in
−10.4 vs Lg median
Break 10.2 in
−5.0 vs Lg median
SweeperST
Rise 6.8 in
+5.7 vs Lg median
Break −16.9 in
−3.1 vs Lg median
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His four-seam fastball and changeup aren't in these charts, because too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.042 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

vs LHB19 PA0.511

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.511 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.488 to 0.533, based on 19 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.617 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHB (0.617) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHB23 PA0.469

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.469 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.447 to 0.491, based on 23 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.486 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.4230.4540.4840.5140.544
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Chase Lee this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Caleb DurbinHome run
100 mph · 28° · worth 3.7 bases
08/13 vs Red Sox
vs Yordan AlvarezSingle
115 mph · 10° · worth 2.0 bases
08/05 vs Astros
vs Carlos NarváezHome run
105 mph · 20° · worth 1.6 bases
04/27 vs Red Sox
vs Jarren DuranSingle
102 mph · 10° · worth 1.0 bases
08/11 vs Red Sox
vs Carson KellyOut
74 mph · 18° · worth 0.9 bases
08/06 vs Cubs

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Chase Lee

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up and his K% is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.