Hunter Brown
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Brown sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.449 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 56th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (75th percentile). The soft spot is Command (9th percentile).
315 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Hunter Brown.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Hunter Brown | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .445 | .528 | 56th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 13% | 9% | 9th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 75th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Hunter Brown mixes his four-seam fastball (33%) and sinker (30%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 2.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 127 bases vs a replacement arm's 175 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
10.3 bases saved vs league average, across 1,299 pitches — 0.8 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Hunter Brown's pitch movement, 2026
3 of his 5 pitches have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.473 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.454 to 0.491, based on 181 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.467 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.432 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.413 to 0.451, based on 137 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.349 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.349) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 7 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 9 more bases than their contact off Hunter Brown earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 192 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.51 · WHIP 1.33 · BABIP against 0.253 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs White SoxJul 25, 2026
23 BF · 7 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.5
- Above replacement
- +9.3
- vs Red SoxMar 31, 2026
21 BF · 8 K, 2 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.4
- Above replacement
- +7.2
- vs AngelsMar 26, 2026
22 BF · 9 K, 4 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.2
- Above replacement
- +6.1
- vs AthleticsAug 22, 2026
24 BF · 4 K, 3 BB, 7 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 8.9
- Above replacement
- +4.4
- vs TigersJun 28, 2026
25 BF · 4 K, 2 BB, 5 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 9.7
- Above replacement
- +4.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Hunter Brown
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against up, GB% against up, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.