MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 31, 2026
Marlins
5
Final
Mets
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Marlins 39% · tied 19% · Mets 43%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
2
Est. bases
13.6
13.5
Total bases
14
11
Home runs
1
1
Barrels
2
3
Walks/HBP
2
2
Strikeouts
6
12
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
3
7
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Mets lead on deserved runs by 0.2.

Mets deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+0.2-3
Marlins deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Mets +0.3 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Mets +0.3 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Mets +0.2 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Mets +0.2 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 5: deserved Mets +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Marlins +3Through inning 6: deserved Marlins +1.0 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.2 deserved runs · actual Marlins +4Through inning 7: deserved Marlins +0.4 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Marlins +3Through inning 8: deserved Marlins +0.5 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Marlins +3Through inning 9: deserved Mets +0.2 (80% band -3.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual Marlins +3123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualMets sideMarlins side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Marlins
Mets
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Marlins
Mets
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Worse — extra bases allowed
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Marlinspitching
Janson Junk1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.5 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 33 pitches. The Sweeper got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.5 expected bases.

Curveball7 thrown (9% tonight, season 7%)
+0.2 bases cost
Cade Gibson
0.7 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Curveball3 thrown (38% tonight, season 23%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Changeup2 thrown (25% tonight, season 6%)
0.0 bases
Slider1 thrown (13% tonight, season 17%)
−0.1 bases saved
Calvin Faucher
1.6 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.9 expected bases. Overall 1.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper10 thrown (34% tonight, season 23%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Cutter9 thrown (31% tonight, season 40%)
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker3 thrown (10% tonight, season 14%)
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (7% tonight, season 7%) · 2 whiffs
−0.6 bases saved
Tyler Zuber
0.4 bases saved

About an average night — −0.4 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sweeper11 thrown (48% tonight, season 34%) · 2 whiffs
0.0 bases
Sinker2 thrown (9% tonight, season 9%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Pete Fairbanks
0.1 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Metspitching
Kodai Senga1.7 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 20 pitches. The Sweeper got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.0 expected bases.

Forkball11 thrown (22% tonight, season 24%) · 2 whiffs
+0.2 bases cost
Xzavion Curry
0.7 bases cost

His Slider did the damage prevention — 3.2 bases better than average on 20 pitches. The Curveball got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.1 expected bases.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Francisco Lindor hit it

Every ball Francisco Lindor hit this game, where it landed.

347'415'336'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.5 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP1 K105.2 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.5
PA 1 vs Janson Junk: strikeoutPA 2 vs Janson Junk: walkPA 3 vs Janson Junk: single — 0.7 deserved basesPA 4 vs Calvin Faucher: home run — 3.9 deserved bases
K
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking46%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Fastball38%
Offspeed15%

0.7 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Calvin Faucher
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.9
Janson Junk
KBB
Actual
2.0
Deserved
1.7
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Citi Field.

Marlins27 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
347'415'336'
Mets22 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
347'415'336'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Citi Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information