Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 3, 2026
Cardinals
13
Final
Yankees
7
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Cardinals 78% · tied 9% · Yankees 13%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
13
7
Est. bases
23.7
22.1
Total bases
31
26
Home runs
5
5
Barrels
4
4
Walks/HBP
7
1
Strikeouts
12
9
GIDP
2
0
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
4
3
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Cardinals lead on deserved runs by 2.7.

Yankees deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2+4-2.7-6
Cardinals deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Cardinals +2.0 (80% band -4.0 to -1.0) · this inning -2.0 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +2Through inning 2: deserved Cardinals +2.1 (80% band -4.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +3Through inning 3: deserved Cardinals +2.3 (80% band -4.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +4Through inning 4: deserved Cardinals +3.8 (80% band -6.0 to -2.0) · this inning -1.5 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +6Through inning 5: deserved Cardinals +2.3 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning +1.5 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +3Through inning 6: deserved Cardinals +1.7 (80% band -4.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +3Through inning 7: deserved Yankees +2.1 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +3.8 deserved runs · actual Yankees +1Through inning 8: deserved Cardinals +3.1 (80% band -7.0 to 0.0) · this inning -5.2 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +6Through inning 9: deserved Cardinals +2.7 (80% band -6.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +6123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualYankees sideCardinals side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Cardinals
Yankees
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Cardinals
Lucky
Unlucky
Yankees
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Cardinals
Yankees
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Cardinalspitching
Michael McGreevy4.3 IP · 18 BF · 5 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases cost

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 20 pitches. The Cutter got hit — 4 balls in play worth 5.2 expected bases.

Sinker10 thrown (11% tonight, season 17%) · 1 whiff
−0.6 bases saved
Slider5 thrown (5% tonight, season 4%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Sweeper4 thrown (4% tonight, season 10%)
+0.1 bases cost
Justin Bruihl1.7 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases saved

About an average night — −0.2 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Ryne Stanek0.3 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
6.3 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 8.1 expected bases. Overall 6.3 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Splitter3 thrown (27% tonight, season 15%)
+0.1 bases cost
Sinker1 thrown (9% tonight, season 11%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider1 thrown (9% tonight, season 23%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
George Soriano0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.0 expected bases.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (28% tonight, season 29%)
−0.2 bases saved
Slider2 thrown (11% tonight, season 23%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (6% tonight, season 9%)
0.0 bases
Gordon Graceffo2.0 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.8 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 9 pitches. Overall 1.8 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Yankeespitching
Cam Schlittler3.0 IP · 17 BF · 6 K · 5 BB
2.5 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 5.1 expected bases. 4 of his 8 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Curveball14 thrown (17% tonight, season 9%)
+0.5 bases cost
Cutter13 thrown (16% tonight, season 26%) · 3 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Tim Hill1.3 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.2 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 5 balls in play worth 4.9 expected bases. Overall 2.2 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer1 thrown (4% tonight, season 6%)
−0.1 bases saved
Kervin Castro1.7 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
1.5 bases saved

About an average night — −1.5 bases vs average on 7 batters.

Curveball5 thrown (18% tonight, season 8%)
−0.2 bases saved
Cutter2 thrown (7% tonight, season 23%)
0.0 bases
Ryan Yarbrough1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup2 thrown (13% tonight, season 21%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Sweeper1 thrown (6% tonight, season 21%)
+0.1 bases cost
Angel Chivilli1.0 IP · 9 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
9.4 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.9 expected bases. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Fernando Cruz1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Splitter4 thrown (40% tonight, season 52%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Slider4 thrown (40% tonight, season 13%)
−0.3 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Cardinals
Lucky
Unlucky
Yankees
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Alec Burleson hit it

Every ball Alec Burleson hit this game, where it landed.

340'425'330'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.3 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP1 K109.1 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 12Deserved: 10.7
PA 1 vs Cam Schlittler: home run — 3.3 deserved basesPA 2 vs Cam Schlittler: strikeoutPA 3 vs Tim Hill: home run — 3.3 deserved basesPA 4 vs Ryan Yarbrough: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 5 vs Angel Chivilli: home run — 3.9 deserved bases
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball72%

6.8 deserved bases on contact

Breaking20%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed8%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Angel Chivilli
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.9
Tim Hill
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.3
Cam Schlittler
K
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.3
Ryan Yarbrough
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Yankee Stadium.

Cardinals25 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
340'425'330'
Yankees27 BIP · 1 BB/HBP
340'425'330'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Yankee Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information