Tim Hill
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Hill is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.470 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 27th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (90th percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (0th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
202 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Tim Hill.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Tim Hill | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .456 | .528 | 27th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 6% | 9% | 90th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 15% | 22% | 0th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Tim Hill leans on his sinker (82% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 1.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 87 bases vs a replacement arm's 104 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
5.9 bases saved vs league average, across 638 pitches — 0.9 per 100.
His four-seam fastball isn't in the charts below — only 43 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his slider tilts 21 points more toward righties.
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Tim Hill's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His four-seam fastball isn't in these charts — only 43 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.476 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.454 to 0.496, based on 121 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.369 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.369) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.516 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.495 to 0.536, based on 81 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.571 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.571) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 9 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Tim Hill.
over 162 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.41 · WHIP 1.14 · BABIP against 0.235 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs AngelsApr 13, 2026
7 BF · 0 K, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.8
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs RaysJul 7, 2026
6 BF · 0 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs MarinersAug 11, 2026
4 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs GuardiansJun 2, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.9
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs Blue JaysJun 14, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Tim Hill
HR allowed% up, K% down, FB% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.