Justin Bruihl
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Bruihl has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.457 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 44th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (96th percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (5th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
281 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Justin Bruihl.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Justin Bruihl | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .417 | .528 | 44th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 53rd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 17% | 22% | 5th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Justin Bruihl mixes his sinker (45%) and sweeper (39%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 3.2 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 113 bases vs a replacement arm's 144 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
12.5 bases saved vs league average, across 1,054 pitches — 1.2 per 100.
Rarely used: cutter (1%)
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Mix by batter side
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Justin Bruihl's pitch movement, 2026
His Four-Seam Fastball has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.430 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.411 to 0.449, based on 144 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.403 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.469 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.489, based on 137 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.439 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 5 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Justin Bruihl.
over 211 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.39 · WHIP 1.37 · BABIP against 0.293 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RoyalsJun 18, 2026
12 BF · 2 K, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.6
- Above replacement
- +3.5
- vs BravesJul 2, 2026
10 BF · 2 K, 1 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 2.3
- Above replacement
- +2.8
- vs PiratesMay 20, 2026
6 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +2.8
- vs CubsJul 28, 2026
8 BF · 4 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.6
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs MetsJun 9, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +2.1
Trends
Multi-season trends · Justin Bruihl
HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.