Angel Chivilli
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Chivilli has been below average at limiting bases
The simulator expects him to allow 0.463 bases per batter faced, better than 33% of qualified pitchers. His weakest skill is limiting home runs (5th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.
His grade rests on 73 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Angel Chivilli mixes his changeup (42%) and slider (38%). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 1.6 bases per 100 thrown against league average, and his changeup runs 2.7 mph faster than the median right-handed pitcher's.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
He allowed about 35 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 38 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
He cost 2.5 bases against league average across 285 pitches, or 0.9 per 100 pitches.
How to read this chart
Mix by batter side
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Angel Chivilli's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape, but his other 2 have not.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
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By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.479 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.457 to 0.501, based on 34 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.453 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.438 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.416 to 0.460, based on 39 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.519 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
His raw rate vs RHB (0.519) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.
His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.
How to read this chart
- Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
- The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
- The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
- The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
- Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
One hit off him had less than a 20% chance of being a hit.
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Best games
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
- vs RaysJul 9, 2026
6 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs DodgersJul 19, 2026
4 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs NationalsJul 12, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.0
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs RoyalsApr 19, 2026score only
8 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 1 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 2.6
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs White SoxJul 30, 2026
6 BF · 3 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.6
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Angel Chivilli
Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up and his K% is up.
Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.