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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jun 21, 2026
Mets
2
Final
Phillies
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Mets 3% · tied 4% · Phillies 93%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
2
6
Est. bases
7.7
15.7
Total bases
9
16
Home runs
1
2
Barrels
0
2
Walks/HBP
3
4
Strikeouts
14
7
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
6
6
Errors
1
0

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Mets
Phillies
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Mets
Phillies
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Metspitching
David Peterson4.0 IP · 20 BF · 5 K · 2 BB
1.5 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 5 balls in play worth 4.8 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 26 pitches.

Austin Warren2.0 IP · 8 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
3.3 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 2 balls in play worth 4.8 expected bases. 3 of his 6 whiffs came on the Sweeper.

Four-Seamer10 thrown (27% tonight, season 16%) · 3 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Brooks Raley1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases saved

About an average night — −0.2 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Changeup3 thrown (14% tonight, season 12%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (5% tonight, season 21%)
−0.1 bases saved
A.J. Minter1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (22% tonight, season 29%)
+0.2 bases cost
Philliespitching
Zack Wheeler5.7 IP · 23 BF · 7 K · 3 BB
2.4 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 2.1 bases better than average on 27 pitches. The Splitter got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.8 expected bases.

Curveball6 thrown (6% tonight, season 9%)
+0.3 bases cost
Jonathan Bowlan0.3 IP · 1 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Slider3 thrown (75% tonight, season 18%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown (25% tonight, season 45%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
José Alvarado1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Sinker.

Cutter6 thrown (29% tonight, season 32%) · 2 whiffs
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Orion Kerkering1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (36% tonight, season 33%)
−0.7 bases saved
Jhoan Duran1.0 IP · 4 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

4 of his 7 whiffs came on the Splitter.

Sweeper4 thrown (27% tonight, season 10%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (13% tonight, season 26%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown (7% tonight, season 6%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Bryce Harper hit it

Every ball Bryce Harper hit this game, where it landed.

329'411'330'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.6 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP1 K108.1 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 6.4
PA 1 vs David Peterson: strikeoutPA 2 vs David Peterson: double — 1.7 deserved basesPA 3 vs Austin Warren: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 4 vs Brooks Raley: single — 1.0 deserved bases
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking72%

6.4 deserved bases on contact

Fastball28%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Austin Warren
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.8
David Peterson
K
Actual
2.0
Deserved
1.7
Brooks Raley
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Citizens Bank Park.

Mets18 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
329'411'330'
Phillies25 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
329'411'330'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Citizens Bank Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information