Austin Warren
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Warren is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.475 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 20th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Command (18th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
167 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Austin Warren.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Austin Warren | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .620 | .528 | 20th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 18th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 24% | 22% | 58th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Austin Warren leans on his sweeper (47% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the sweeper has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 81 bases vs a replacement arm's 86 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
10.9 bases cost vs league average, across 680 pitches — 1.6 per 100.
Rarely used: changeup, cutter (3%)
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Mix by batter side
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Austin Warren's pitch movement, 2026
His Four-Seam Fastball and Curveball have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.453 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.433 to 0.474, based on 81 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.564 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.564) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.413 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.392 to 0.434, based on 86 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.453 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040).
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 3 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Austin Warren.
over 101 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.30 · WHIP 1.43 · BABIP against 0.302 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RockiesApr 26, 2026
6 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs NationalsMay 18, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.9
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs White SoxAug 22, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.9
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs TwinsApr 21, 2026
3 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs PadresAug 19, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Austin Warren
Holding steady vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.