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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 9, 2026
Blue Jays
6
Final
Phillies
7
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Blue Jays 3% · tied 4% · Phillies 93%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
6
7
Est. bases
12.0
16.8
Total bases
12
16
Home runs
0
2
Barrels
0
2
Walks/HBP
3
11
Strikeouts
15
9
GIDP
2
0
Stolen bases
0
3
Left on base
9
16
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Phillies lead on deserved runs by 4.8.

Phillies deserved lead ↑
0+2+4+6+8+4.8+1
Blue Jays deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved even (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved even (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Phillies +1.6 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.6 deserved runs · actual Phillies +3Through inning 4: deserved Phillies +1.5 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Phillies +2Through inning 5: deserved Phillies +2.7 (80% band +1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual Phillies +2Through inning 6: deserved Phillies +3.0 (80% band +1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Phillies +3Through inning 7: deserved Phillies +3.5 (80% band +1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Phillies +3Through inning 8: deserved Phillies +3.4 (80% band 0.0 to +6.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 9: deserved Phillies +2.9 (80% band 0.0 to +6.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Phillies +3.3 (80% band 0.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 11: deserved Phillies +3.9 (80% band +1.0 to +7.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 12: deserved Phillies +4.8 (80% band +1.0 to +9.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1123456789101112

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualPhillies sideBlue Jays side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Phillies
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Phillies
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Blue Jayspitching
Shane Bieber5.7 IP · 26 BF · 4 K · 3 BB
3.3 bases cost

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.7 bases better than average on 12 pitches. The Knuckle Curve got hit — 2 balls in play worth 4.9 expected bases.

Brendon Little1.0 IP · 5 BF · 3 K · 2 BB
0.3 bases saved

About an average night — −0.3 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Knuckle Curve8 thrown (36% tonight, season 33%) · 2 whiffs
0.0 bases
Sinker5 thrown (23% tonight, season 28%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Slider5 thrown (23% tonight, season 28%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Four-Seamer4 thrown (18% tonight, season 11%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Spencer Miles0.3 IP · 1 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Curveball2 thrown (50% tonight, season 26%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (50% tonight, season 42%)
0.0 bases
Tyler Rogers1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.1 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.3 expected bases.

Mason Fluharty1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Sweeper4 thrown (36% tonight, season 41%)
0.0 bases
Braydon Fisher2.0 IP · 8 BF · 0 K · 3 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Curveball6 thrown (35% tonight, season 29%)
+0.6 bases cost
Lazaro Estrada0.3 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases cost

About an average night — +0.5 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Cutter2 thrown
0.0 bases
Splitter1 thrown (7% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Philliespitching
Jesús Luzardo7.0 IP · 27 BF · 12 K · 1 BB
5.9 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 3.3 bases better than average on 46 pitches. 17 of his 20 whiffs came on the Sweeper.

Orion Kerkering1.0 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.1 expected bases.

Splitter2 thrown (7% tonight, season 6%)
+0.2 bases cost
Jhoan Duran1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

His Splitter did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (27% tonight, season 27%)
+0.5 bases cost
Tim Mayza1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.8 bases saved

About an average night — −0.8 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (44% tonight, season 8%) · 3 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Sinker6 thrown (38% tonight, season 58%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Brooks Raley1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Caleb Kilian1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker1 thrown (8% tonight, season 14%)
+0.1 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Kyle Schwarber hit it

Every ball Kyle Schwarber hit this game, where it landed.

329'411'330'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.6 bases ahead of deserved.

6 PA2 H3 BB0 HBP0 K107.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 11Deserved: 10.4
PA 1 vs Shane Bieber: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 2 vs Shane Bieber: home run — 3.4 deserved basesPA 3 vs Shane Bieber: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 4 vs Brendon Little: walkPA 5 vs Tyler Rogers: walkPA 6 vs Braydon Fisher: walk
BB
BB
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking46%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Fastball38%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed15%

3.4 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Shane Bieber
Actual
8.0
Deserved
7.4
Brendon Little
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Tyler Rogers
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Braydon Fisher
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Citizens Bank Park.

Blue Jays30 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
329'411'330'
Phillies34 BIP · 11 BB/HBP
329'411'330'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Citizens Bank Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information