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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Brewers at Giants · Jul 29, 2026

Brewers
3
Final
Giants
16
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Brewers 5% · tied 4% · Giants 90%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
3
16
Est. bases
11.1
18.4
Total bases
11
23
Home runs
0
2
Barrels
0
1
Walks/HBP
5
8
Strikeouts
7
5
GIDP
2
0
Stolen bases
1
3
Left on base
9
10
Errors
3
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Giants lead on deserved runs by 4.9.

Giants deserved lead ↑
0+5+10+4.9+13
Brewers deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Brewers +0.0 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Giants +1.5 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.5 deserved runs · actual Giants +3Through inning 3: deserved Giants +1.6 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Giants +2Through inning 4: deserved Giants +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Giants +1Through inning 5: deserved Giants +1.8 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual Giants +1Through inning 6: deserved Giants +4.2 (80% band +1.0 to +7.0) · this inning +2.4 deserved runs · actual Giants +8Through inning 7: deserved Giants +4.1 (80% band 0.0 to +8.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Giants +10Through inning 8: deserved Giants +5.1 (80% band +1.0 to +9.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Giants +13Through inning 9: deserved Giants +4.9 (80% band +1.0 to +9.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Giants +13123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualGiants sideBrewers side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Brewers
Giants
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Brewers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Brewers
Giants
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Brewerspitching
Thomas Pannone3.0 IP · 14 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
1.3 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 2.5 expected bases.

Curveball7 thrown (13% tonight, season 13%)
+0.6 bases cost
Chad Patrick2.0 IP · 11 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
even

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 16 pitches.

Four-Seamer10 thrown (21% tonight, season 25%)
+0.5 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown
+0.5 bases cost
Slurve1 thrown (2% tonight, season 8%)
0.0 bases
Aaron Ashby0.3 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases cost

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 16 pitches. The Curveball got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases.

Curveball5 thrown (21% tonight, season 22%)
+0.8 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (8% tonight, season 13%)
+0.1 bases cost
Bryse Wilson1.7 IP · 11 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases cost

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 15 pitches. The Cutter got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.1 expected bases.

Andrew Vaughn1.0 IP · 8 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
2.4 bases cost

The Knuckleball got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.7 expected bases. Overall 2.4 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Giantspitching
Logan Webb6.0 IP · 23 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
3.6 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 20 pitches. 5 of his 8 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Sam Hentges1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
2.1 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.3 expected bases. Overall 2.1 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Curveball8 thrown (33% tonight, season 17%)
+0.6 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (8% tonight, season 24%)
0.0 bases
Caleb Kilian1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.0 expected bases.

Slider4 thrown (22% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Knuckle Curve2 thrown (11% tonight, season 24%)
0.0 bases
Sinker1 thrown (6% tonight, season 14%)
−0.1 bases saved
Keaton Winn1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Splitter4 thrown (29% tonight, season 46%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (14% tonight, season 25%)
+0.7 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (14% tonight, season 8%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Brewers
Unlucky
Dead even
Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Daniel Susac hit it

Every ball Daniel Susac hit this game, where it landed.

339'406'309'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +3.6 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP0 K102.9 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 9Deserved: 5.4
PA 1 vs Thomas Pannone: home run — 2.5 deserved basesPA 2 vs Chad Patrick: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Chad Patrick: walkPA 4 vs Bryse Wilson: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 5 vs Andrew Vaughn: home run — 1.7 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball65%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Other18%

1.7 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed12%

2.5 deserved bases on contact

Breaking6%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Thomas Pannone
Actual
4.0
Deserved
2.5
Andrew Vaughn
Actual
4.0
Deserved
1.7
Chad Patrick
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.1
Bryse Wilson
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Oracle Park.

Brewers27 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
339'406'309'
Giants36 BIP · 8 BB/HBP
339'406'309'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Oracle Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information