Keaton Winn
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Winn has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.460 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 39th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (82nd percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (28th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
176 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Keaton Winn.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Keaton Winn | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .466 | .528 | 39th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 43rd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 20% | 22% | 28th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Keaton Winn leans on his splitter (46% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 6.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his splitter runs 2.5 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 74 bases vs a replacement arm's 90 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
1.0 bases saved vs league average, across 596 pitches — 0.2 per 100.
His slider isn't in the charts below — only 48 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Keaton Winn's pitch movement, 2026
His Splitter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His slider isn't in these charts — only 48 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.485 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.464 to 0.506, based on 73 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.557 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.557) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.444 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.421 to 0.463, based on 104 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.348 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.348) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Keaton Winn.
over 122 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.35 · WHIP 1.19 · BABIP against 0.261 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PadresMar 30, 2026
3 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs D-backsMay 20, 2026
3 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs RedsApr 14, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs RedsApr 16, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs PhilliesApr 7, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Keaton Winn
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.